Thailand’s powerful Shinawatra clan is preparing for a tidal wave of critical court rulings this week. Upcoming verdicts may decide Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s political destiny and have her father, former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, possibly back behind bars as political uncertainty hangs heavy with cloud.
Suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn testified Thursday in her ethics case against a contentious telephone call with Cambodia’s Hun Sen. She was criticized for referring to Hun Sen as “uncle” and denouncing a Thai general during a June border conflict, actions considered eroding national security and military dignity.
The Constitutional Court suspended her on July 1 by a vote of 7 to 2 on grounds of a lack of “evident integrity.” A decision is to be made on August 29. Political analysts say an unfavourable ruling will effectively bring her term to an end and drive Thailand towards early elections.
Thaksin’s Legal Fate
Meanwhile, Thaksin Shinawatra faces two court rulings. On Friday, a Bangkok court will decide whether his 2015 interview insulted Thailand’s monarchy a crime punishable by up to 15 years per offense. Another ruling due in 18 days will assess whether Thaksin improperly circumvented serving his prison sentence by staying in a VIP hospital instead of jail.
If Thaksin is convicted or sent back to prison, the negotiating strength of the Shinawatra dynasty might collapse, the way open to a snap election while their Pheu Thai Party tries to stay afloat.
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Political Fallout and Wider Consequences
The trial may further plunge Thailand into political uncertainty. Economic woes such as feeble growth, high household debt, and weak tourism already test the government. Paetongtarn’s suspension and begging in court have added to political unrest.
Demonstrations have broken out in Bangkok, with critics accusing the Shinawatras of putting national interests at risk in the border war with Cambodia. Campaigns by right-wing groups see these legal moves as the “deep state” employing courts to destroy opposition influence without the use of the military.
The political machine seems to be re-calibrating. Analysts say the conservative elite might support a caretaker prime minister potentially Chaikasem Nitisiri to ride things out until parliament is dissolved and elections are held.
