The Congress seems to have the edge in the Haryana assembly polls and is going all out to capitalise on it. This is one reason why Rahul Gandhi launched his Vijay Sankalp yatra in the last four days of campaigning. The fact that he began it from the sitting CM’s stronghold is in itself an indication as to how confident he is about a win. In fact the Congress is so confident of the state turning in its favour, that it is going out of its way to make this a Rahul vs Modi narrative by focusing on national issues and not just the local ones.
Having said this, the road ahead does have its potholes. The INLD could play a spoiler and take away some of Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s Jat votes. But the damage would be only visible in case the fight between the BJP and the Congress comes down to a narrow margin, which given the current indicators doesn’t seem very likely.
Another factor that could have hurt the Congress is the infighting for Kumari Selja did not hide her displeasure at the way the tickets were distributed. So much so that the BJP’s ML Khattar, former CM and current Cabinet minister, even sent her an invite to cross over. Infighting and arrogance is what cost the Congress the state of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan; and this time round the party did not waste time in containing the damage. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge himself reached out to both Selja and Bhupinder Hooda and ensured that the duo shared a dais together soon after.
The BJP for its part has deployed all its big guns from the PM to Amit Shah to Yogi Adiyanath, Hemanta Biswa Sarma and Rajnath Singh. The BJP campaign is focussing on local issues, but unfortunately its Agniveer scheme has not gone down well with the voter on ground. That and the jobs crunch, as well as a ten year anti incumbency is being played up by the Congress.
While Hooda appeals to the 25 % Jat vote there is a 22 % Dailit voteshare in the state as well, hence both need to be accomodated. While the Congress is claiming that it has not decided its CM candidate, the optics are all in favour of Bhupinder Singh Hooda who has worked hard on the ground to retain his mass appeal. He is the tallest leader in the state today and it would be unfortunate if the Congress HIgh Command feels threatened by his popularity and goes in for a compromise candidate instead. In fact the Congress would do well to look at the BJP which is paying a price for taking on Vasundhara Raje Scindia in Rajasthan and ignoring her claims for a proxy of the centre.
The BJP for its part has deployed all its big guns from the PM to Amit Shah to Yogi Adiyanath, Hemanta Biswa Sarma and Rajnath Singh. The BJP campaign is focussing on local issues, but unfortunately its Agniveer scheme has not gone down well with the voter on ground. That and the jobs crunch, as well as a ten year anti incumbency is being played up by the Congress.
The elections in Jammu & Kashmir are a little more difficult to predict as there are a lot of unknown variables, in the form of independent candidates and newly formed parties contesting their first election. The NC-Congress combine did have the lead in the beginning of the polls but now their campaign looks a bit uncertain. While the NC is facing local outfits in the Valley the Congress did not launch a very convincing campaign in Jammu where it is taking on the BJP. The BJP seems also to have managed its ticket distribution better than the Congress.
These are the first set of polls post the Lok Sabha and it would be interesting to see if the trend we saw in June holds or if the BJP manages to make some sort of a comeback. Losing Haryana but ensuring that the INDIA group does not win J&K will give BJP leaders some solace. But as far as the Congress is concerned, wresting Haryana from the BJP after ten years (even if it doesnt notch a convincing win in J&K) will lend enough credibility to its narrative of a party on the comeback trail.
