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Move would redefine congressional boundaries and ignite unprecedented court fight for representation
President Donald Trump has issued a huge curveball into the battle over congressional redistricting by directing the Commerce Department to take a national census years early and to leave out undocumented immigrants from the count.
Directed Thursday on Trump’s Truth Social site, the order skips the 2030 official census. Trump states the findings will be employed to redivide congressional districts, which may resoundingly alter the power dynamic of political representation throughout the United States.
The move already has prompted fierce controversy regarding whether it is legal, feasible, and politically motivated.
Constitutional Clash Over Representation
By the 14th Amendment, seats in Congress are allocated according to “the whole number of persons” residing in each state a population count that has traditionally encompassed both citizens and non-citizens, whether they be legal or illegal immigrants.
This isn’t Trump’s first attempt to change that. In 2020, during his first term, he issued a similar order to exclude undocumented immigrants from the apportionment count. That move was struck down in court and later rescinded by President Joe Biden.
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell indicates Trump’s newest effort is meant to bring an awareness to an issue many Americans are unaware of that illegal immigrants are included in congressional representation. “It’s Trump testing the limits,” O’Connell said. “This could be an potent political message.
Though some Republicans concede expelling undocumented aliens could also lose red states such as Texas and Florida seats, they contend it would disproportionately affect Democratic strongholds such as California, New York, and Illinois.
Political Gamble Ahead of Midterms
The move comes as a part of a larger Republican effort to cement political gains before next year’s midterm elections. Trump has already called on Texas Republicans to vote for new maps of their legislative districts that would put five more House seats in Republican control.
A GOP strategist called the battle “an arms race” in redistricting. Democrats, they contended, have already taken their gerrymandering edge as far as it can go in the tight states they now hold and tight early census is one step for Republicans to catch up.
Democrats have, however, criticized the move as unconstitutional and impractical. “This is a political stunt intended to bully Republican governors into hostile gerrymanders,” said Democratic strategist Jared Leopold. “It resonates with Trump’s base but runs the risk of further alienating an expanded electorate.”
Legal and Logistical Roadblocks
Experts caution that conducting a nationwide headcount and locating undocumented immigrants prior to the midterms would be virtually impossible.
James Thurber, a professor of political science at American University, referenced the lengthy 2018 battle over including a citizenship question in the census, which the Supreme Court put on hold. “There’s simply not enough time,” he explained.
Even if it never materializes, analysts indicate that Trump’s suggestion can still have tangible consequences, potentially deterring some immigrants even lawful residents from taking part in government programs or voting.
If it goes ahead, it may ignite one of the most heated mid-decade redistricting fights in US history. “It would be unusual, historic, and something to observe,” Thurber said.
For the time being, Trump’s move primes the pump for a political and legal battle one that could redefine the rules of representation before most Americans even notice the census is back on the map.
