US President Donald Trump has given Russia 50 days to seal a peace agreement on Ukraine or risk 100% secondary tariffs. But rather than panic, Moscow markets rallied, jumping 2.7% on the Moscow Stock Exchange. Analysts explain that the surprise market surge indicates investors had been expecting tougher measures, and breathed a sigh of relief when Trump's action proved "softer than expected."
As Trump promises to equip NATO allies and intensify pressure on Russia, many are wondering if this is an actual policy change—or one more bluff in his lengthy playbook.
The Russian stock market response caught many by surprise. Trump's on-air threat to inflict severe economic sanctions did not prompt a sell-off, rather, investors invested.
As reported by Russia's state-controlled TASS, the market had fallen earlier as a result of anxiety over a tough US crackdown. "The market was worried about drastic measures on Russia, but reality was softer," said analyst Natalia Pyryeva in the outlet. The message was clear: Trump's bluster didn't shake Moscow.
Trump's suggested 100% secondary tariffs would not only hurt Russia but also penalize nations that still engage in trade with Russia. These sanctions might hit major US allies such as India and Turkey, which have kept lines open with Moscow.
The plan is to employ America's trading power to isolate the Kremlin. In so doing, however, Trump risks driving away allies whose help he will require for grander purposes—specifically, his effort to push back against China and return manufacturing to America.
This step also heralds a possible shift in Trump's strategy on the Ukraine conflict. His critics have long complained that he is too soft on Putin. Now, through the promotion of a NATO-supported arms package and the imposition of red lines, Trump is attempting to alter that narrative.
Nevertheless, many note that Trump frequently calls deadlines, only to reverse course afterwards. Whether this one will stick remains to be seen.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has weathered Western threats and global sanctions since the war started. He's established alternative alliances with China and the Middle East, taking advantage of mounting fatigue in the West.
Trump's deadline can simply be regarded in Moscow as another "artificial red line." Unless the US takes firm action, Putin could decide to wait it out, once again.
The coming 50 days may determine the foreign policy of more than just Trump. They may challenge US credibility worldwide. If Trump does not act on his threat, it may encourage Moscow even more.
But if he does act, the move could redefine international trade, fracture alliances, and widen the gulf between the West and Russia. Either way, Trump is at a crossroads now—not simply between diplomacy and deterrence, but between pressure that produces outcomes and pressure that merely makes noise.
