Trump immigration crackdown 2025 sees DHS claim 1.6 million undocumented departures, but Pew and CIS data show sharp divides.
The Trump immigration crackdown 2025 has dominated debate in Washington. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) claims that 1.6 million undocumented immigrants have departed the United States in the first 200 days since Donald Trump returned to the presidency. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem framed this number as proof of success. She credited tougher policing and a voluntary departure program called Operation Homecoming. Independent researchers, however, warned that the estimates remain limited. Pew Research Center and the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) produced figures that tell a different story. The numbers, the methodology, and the politics have all raised questions about the scale of the change.
DHS stated that 1.6 million undocumented immigrants had left since January. Noem promoted the figure as unprecedented. She argued that the reduction means safer streets, less strain on public services, and more jobs for American workers. She also credited a multi-pronged strategy that combined raids, arrests, and voluntary departures. On Fox News, she praised Trump’s “genius” for pushing the campaign forward.
Operation Homecoming marked one of the most distinctive features of the strategy. The program offered undocumented immigrants free travel and $1,000 if they agreed to self-deport. DHS replaced the CBP One App with the CBP Home App, which allowed people to schedule their own exit. A multimillion-dollar advertising campaign promoted the message: leave voluntarily or face arrest and critics argued that incentives could encourage re-entry, but DHS sold the idea as humanitarian and pragmatic.
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Alongside the voluntary scheme, DHS pushed aggressive enforcement. ICE and CBP conducted raids nationwide. DHS reported 352,000 arrests and 324,000 deportations. Yet daily arrests slowed in July, falling from 1,224 per day in June to 990 per day in July. Analysts said logistical limits played a role.
CIS estimated that the undocumented population dropped from 15.8 million in January to 14.2 million in July. It based the analysis on Census Bureau surveys. CIS cautioned that stepped-up enforcement could discourage immigrants from responding to surveys, inflating the decline. It also noted that total foreign-born population fell by 2.2 million in the first half of 2025, including 600,000 legal non-citizens.
Pew Research Center said the undocumented population hit 14 million in 2023, the highest ever. It linked the surge to Biden-era asylum and protection policies. Pew acknowledged a decline under Trump but stressed that the number still likely stands above 14 million. It also highlighted that total immigrant population peaked at 53 million in January before falling for the first time since the 1960s.
Trump has long argued that the undocumented population is much larger. In March, he told Congress that 21 million migrants entered during the previous four years. FAIR estimated 18.6 million in March. DHS’s own statistics in 2022 put the figure at 11 million, while CMS reported 12.2 million.
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Pew reported that Mexico accounted for 4.3 million undocumented immigrants in 2023. Migrants from Central America, India, Venezuela, Cuba, and others grew faster. States like California, Texas, Florida, and New York house the largest numbers. Pew also noted that 9.7 million undocumented immigrants worked in the US labor force in 2023. Industries such as construction, hospitality, and food services have since seen sharp declines in employment while supporters argue this opens jobs for Americans, while critics warn of disruptions and higher costs.
