In the improbable event that the US presidential election results in a tie, with neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump securing the 270 electoral votes required to win, the decision would move to Congress in a “contingent election.” Here’s how an Electoral College deadlock would play out and its implications.
The Electoral College Explained
US presidents are not chosen by the national popular vote but by a 538-member Electoral College. Each state’s electoral votes correspond to its Congressional representation: two senators plus a number of House representatives based on population. Most states, except Maine and Nebraska, use a “winner-takes-all” system, where the candidate winning the state’s popular vote receives all its electoral votes.
For example, Florida, with 29 electoral votes, awards all of them to the candidate with the majority of the popular vote in the state. This winner-takes-all system is key in the race to reach the decisive 270 electoral votes.
What If No Candidate Reaches 270 Electoral Votes?
If both candidates end up with 269 electoral votes, the decision shifts to Congress. Specifically, the newly elected House of Representatives would choose the president, while the Senate would select the vice president.
How a 269-269 Tie Could Happen
Although unlikely, a 269-269 tie could arise if Kamala Harris wins key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump takes Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and a congressional district in Nebraska. This deadlock would trigger a contingent election, as no candidate would reach the 270-vote threshold.
The Contingent Election Process
In a contingent election, each state delegation in the House casts one vote for president. This structure gives smaller states like Wyoming the same voting power as larger states like California. A candidate needs a majority of state delegations (26 out of 50) to secure the presidency, which, given the current political landscape, could potentially favor Republicans.
Meanwhile, the Senate would choose the vice president, with each senator casting an individual vote. A majority vote would determine the outcome.
Historical Context and Potential Consequences
The last contingent election occurred in 1800, when a tie between Thomas Jefferson and John Adams required the House to decide after 36 ballots, eventually leading to the 12th Amendment, which refined the rules around presidential elections.
A tied election today would likely add to existing political tensions. The House would need to agree on rules for the contingent election process, which could spark intense partisan disputes. In a highly polarized climate, this could further strain public confidence in the election’s integrity.
In summary, if a tie occurred, Congress would ultimately decide the election: the House would vote for the president, while the Senate would select the vice president. This rare and complex scenario would likely heighten political uncertainty and tension across the country, illustrating the intricacies of the Electoral College system.
