( ) * Pipeline constraints keep Waha Hub prices negative * Ample storage and mild weather forecast limit demand * Lower 48 states see drop in gas output, LSEG reports By Scott DiSavino Oct 6 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Monday on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 6.7 cents, or 2.0%, to $3.391 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:42 a.m. EDT (1242 GMT). In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which fell to a record low of minus $7.07 per mmBtu on Thursday, remained in negative territory for a ninth day in a row and an 18th time so far this year due to ongoing pipeline constraints from maintenance work. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected a broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean had a 70% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next week as it moves northwest toward the northern Caribbean Islands. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.1 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this summer. There was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least October 21. That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than the amount of fuel power generators need to burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.4 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while the forecast for next week was lower. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.2 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. That LNG export feedgas increase came as flows to Venture Global LNG's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plant in Louisiana hit a record 3.6 bcfd on Sunday. LNG plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of the fuel to power operations. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG producer in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading around $11 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia. Week Wee Year Five ende k ago -yea d end Oct r Oct ed 3 aver 3 Sep age Fore 27 Oct cast Act 3 ual U.S. weekly +80 +53 +78 +94 natgas storage change (bcf): U.S. total 3,64 3,5 3,61 3,48 natgas in 1 61 8 4 storage (bcf): U.S. total +4.5 +5. storage versus % 0% 5-year average Global Gas Curr Pri This Prio Five Benchmark ent or Mont r -Yea Futures ($ per Day Day h Year r mmBtu) Last Aver Aver Year age age 2024 (201 9-20 23) Henry Hub 3.46 3.3 2.58 2.41 3.52 2 Title Transfer 11.2 10. 12.8 10.9 15.4 Facility (TTF) 2 80 9 5 7 Japan Korea 11.0 11. 13.3 11.8 15.2 Marker (JKM) 4 03 5 9 3 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Curr Pri Prio 10-Y 30-Y Forecast ent or r ear ear Day Day Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 76 61 89 105 120 U.S. GFS CDDs 70 75 59 58 45 U.S. GFS TDDs 146 136 148 163 165 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prio Cur Next This Five r ren Week Week -Yea Week t Last r Wee Year (202 k 0-20 24) Aver age For Mont h U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 107. 106 106. 101. 98.1 Dry Production 3 .5 8 7 U.S. Imports 6.8 6.9 7.4 N/A 7.4 from Canada U.S. LNG 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Imports Total U.S. 114. 113 114. N/A 105. Supply 2 .5 3 5 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports 2.1 2.5 2.5 N/A 2.2 to Canada U.S. Exports 6.8 6.4 6.7 N/A 6.1 to Mexico U.S. LNG 16.2 16. 16.7 12.6 11.3 Export Feedgas 4 U.S. 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.4 6.9 Commercial U.S. 4.0 4.8 5.6 4.9 7.1 Residential U.S. Power 38.4 34. 31.6 36.6 31.7 Plant 6 U.S. 21.9 22. 22.2 22.1 22.4 Industrial 1 U.S. Plant 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 Fuel U.S. Pipe 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.8 Distribution U.S. Vehicle 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Fuel Total U.S. 76.6 74. 72.4 76.4 76.3 Consumption 2 Total U.S. 101. 99. 98.2 N/A 95.9 Demand 6 4 N/A is Not Available U.S. Northwest 2026 202 2025 2024 2023 River Forecast Curr 6 % of % of % of Center (NWRFC) ent Pr Norm Norm Norm at The Dalles Day ior al al al Dam (Fiscal % of Day Actu Actu Actu year ending Norm % al al al Sep 30) al of Fore Nor cast mal For eca st Apr-Sep 93 93 76 74 83 Jan-Jul 88 87 78 76 77 Oct-Sep 89 89 80 77 76 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA Week Wee 2024 2023 2022 ende k d end Oct ed 10 Oct 3 Wind 16 8 11 10 11 Solar 8 7 5 4 3 Hydro 4 4 6 6 6 Other 1 1 1 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 43 44 42 41 38 Coal 17 17 16 17 21 Nuclear 18 18 19 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Curr Pri ent or Day Day Henry Hub 3.19 3.3 2 Transco Z6 New 1.5 1.5 York 5 4 PG&E Citygate 3.4 3.6 Eastern Gas 1.5 1.5 (old Dominion 4 3 South) Chicago 2.7 2.9 Citygate 9 7 Algonquin 1.7 1.7 Citygate 0 3 SoCal Citygate 2.2 3.2 Waha Hub -4.2 -7. AECO 0.31 0.3 ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Curr Pri ent or Day Day New England 65.9 33. PJM West 93.0 54. Mid C 45.7 39. 5 45 Palo Verde 20.5 20. 0 13 SP-15 23.6 14. 2 50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama )
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