In the midst of intensifying international wars, a worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the international scene, world leaders will gather in New York next week for the United Nations General Assembly. The yearly event is expected to be a tense diplomatic marathon with about 150 heads of state speaking.
Why is This Year’s Assembly So Critical?
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres set a grim tone ahead of the 80th General Assembly, warning that the world is gathering in “turbulent – even uncharted – waters.” He cited widening geopolitical divides, raging conflicts, and an unprecedented strain on international cooperation. The readings from this assembly, which is a gauge of world stability, are concerning.
The Trump Factor: What Does His Return Mean for the UN?
A major focal point will be the speech by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is headlining the event. His relationship with the multilateral body has been famously contentious.
What is his past stance? During his first term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the UN Human Rights Council, UNESCO, the Paris Climate Agreement, and the World Health Organization. He also slashed funding for the Palestinian relief agency UNRWA and overall foreign aid.
What is expected now? Analysts like Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group suggest Trump will use the platform to boast of his achievements and potentially make another case for the Nobel Peace Prize. His return eight months into his second term raises profound questions about the future of U.S. funding and engagement with the UN.
How is the UN Responding to Power Politics?
The Secretary-General acknowledged the limitations of the UN’s power without the backing of major nations. “The UN has very strong efforts in peace mediation… but we have no carrots and no sticks,” Guterres said. He pointedly noted that the United States possesses both, suggesting that effective peace processes require a combination of UN diplomacy and U.S. leverage.
Given the impasse in the UN Security Council, where the United States and Russia have blocked action on Gaza and Ukraine, this is particularly pertinent.
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Gaza and Palestine: The “Huge Elephant” in the Room
The ongoing war in Gaza and the question of Palestinian statehood will dominate discussions.
What is the current situation? A severe humanitarian crisis is worsening in Gaza, with famine taking hold and likely to spread. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces an ICC arrest warrant for alleged war crimes, is scheduled to speak.
What is changing diplomatically? A significant shift is underway as Western nations like Australia, Belgium, Britain, Canada, and France have pledged to formally recognize a Palestinian state, albeit with conditions. A summit hosted by France and Saudi Arabia will aim to build momentum for a two-state solution.
Who won’t be there? Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was denied a visa by the U.S. and will address the assembly via video, a move that has drawn widespread criticism and underscores the deep divisions.
What About Ukraine and Other Flashpoints?
The war in Ukraine remains high on the agenda, though little progress is expected. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will address the assembly, while Russia will be represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Meanwhile, last-minute diplomacy is anticipated over Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran is seeking to avoid the return of all UN sanctions later this month, and both its President and Foreign Minister are expected to be present for negotiations.
