Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resisted a ceasefire agreement with Hamas for months. However, intense pressure from the United States and the families of Israeli hostages forced him to sign. The multi-phase peace deal, brokered by the US, Qatar, and Egypt, marks a significant turning point.
Netanyahu’s Reluctance to Agree
Netanyahu had several reasons for delaying the truce. First and foremost, he believed the 15-month war failed to achieve its primary goal of destroying Hamas completely.
The conflict, which began after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, caused devastating losses. While Israel eliminated Hamas leaders and killed over 46,000 people in Gaza, including 30,000 women and children, Hamas still managed to regroup. Moreover, reports suggest Hamas recruited 20,000 new fighters, making it stronger than before. As a result, instead of weakening Hamas, the war revitalized the group.
Concerns Over Gaza Reconstruction
Additionally, the ceasefire introduces new challenges for Israel. Once all phases are completed, Hamas will play a role in Gaza’s reconstruction. This reconstruction effort has already attracted global attention.
For instance, companies from the US, Europe, the Middle East, and India see this as a lucrative opportunity. Notably, Jared Kushner, a real estate developer and former White House advisor, has plans to transform Gaza into a modern high-tech hub. However, Israel fears that a rebuilt Gaza could eventually pose security risks.
Fear of a Palestinian State
Furthermore, Netanyahu remains deeply opposed to the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state. He has consistently stated his refusal to accept such a state coexisting with Israel.
In fact, his Likud party’s platform explicitly rejects an independent Palestine. It permits Palestinians limited self-governance but ensures that defense and foreign affairs remain under Israeli control. This, according to Netanyahu, keeps Palestine as a dependent territory rather than an independent nation.
International Perspective
On the other hand, most of the world does not share Netanyahu’s views. Over 146 countries, including Spain, Norway, and Ireland, officially recognize Palestine as a sovereign state.
However, the US continues to block Palestine’s full membership in the United Nations. Meanwhile, Israel has allowed settlers to occupy vast areas of the West Bank, despite international criticism. Currently, over 450,000 Israelis live in these areas, often clashing with 3 million Palestinians who remain there.
Netanyahu’s Triple Challenge
Consequently, Netanyahu faces three significant challenges:
- A stronger and more resilient Hamas.
- The risks posed by rebuilding Gaza.
- Increasing global pressure to recognize an independent Palestine.
Even though Netanyahu signed the truce, he has called it temporary. Moreover, he warned that Israel reserves the right to resume the war if necessary.
Peace Versus Conflict
Despite these challenges, peace could bring prosperity to the region. It could transform Gaza, the West Bank, and even neighboring areas like Lebanon. However, this also threatens Israel’s economic dominance in the region.
For many Israelis, the fear remains that rearmed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah could pose an existential threat. Moreover, they worry that an independent Palestine could emerge as a new player in the region.
US Influence and Netanyahu’s Strategy
For now, Netanyahu relies heavily on US support. Although Donald Trump strongly supports Israel, he acknowledges that an independent Palestine is likely inevitable.
Furthermore, Trump views Gaza’s reconstruction as a rare economic opportunity. The US military-industrial complex has long benefited from Middle Eastern conflicts, and Israel depends on US weapons and intelligence to maintain its military strength.
During the conflict, Netanyahu prolonged the war, despite pleas from hostage families for peace. Critics accuse him of prioritizing political survival over humanitarian concerns.
The Road Ahead for Israel
Looking ahead, Israel’s security may depend on accepting an independent Palestine and withdrawing from the West Bank. Additionally, establishing diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia could offer long-term benefits. However, Saudi Arabia has made the recognition of Palestine a precondition for normalizing relations.
Meanwhile, elections in Israel have been postponed due to the war. Polls suggest Netanyahu’s Likud party and its coalition partners may struggle to secure a majority if elections were held today.
Interestingly, Trump’s relationship with Netanyahu has cooled compared to his warmer ties with Joe Biden. As a result, Trump may prefer working with Netanyahu’s successor in the future.
India’s Strategic Interest
India, on its part, is closely monitoring the situation. If peace holds, it could pave the way for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This project has the potential to transform trade routes across the region.
Ultimately, Israel may have to recognize Palestine to ensure long-term peace. Such a move could reshape the region and mark the beginning of a new era for Israel in a post-Netanyahu world.
