An aid conference aimed at raising hundreds of millions of dollars for Lebanon is set to commence in Paris on Thursday. The event seeks to encourage diplomatic progress for the war-torn nation, though significant political breakthroughs appear unlikely, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has resulted in over 1,500 deaths and displaced 700,000 people.
France’s Role and the Conference Goals
France, leveraging its historical ties with Lebanon, has been active in advocating for a ceasefire and providing humanitarian aid. However, its influence has diminished since Israel intensified military actions against Hezbollah in late September. Approximately 70 delegations and 15 international organizations are expected to attend the hastily arranged conference. Notably absent are key figures such as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.
The conference aims to underscore the necessity for a ceasefire by the 2006 UN Security Council resolution 1701 and mobilize international support for the estimated 500,000 to 1 million displaced individuals in Lebanon. To address the crisis, the country requires $250 million monthly for health, food, water, hygiene, and education. France hopes to raise around €500 million ($540 million) in humanitarian aid and bolster support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to help maintain stability and implement the resolution. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and other key ministers are set to attend, although neither Israel nor Iran was invited.
Historical Context: The Franco-Lebanese Relationship
France’s influence in Lebanon dates back to the Ottoman Empire and was solidified after World War I when the League of Nations granted France control over Lebanon and Syria. During the French mandate from 1920 to 1943, Lebanon’s borders were defined, and a government based on sectarian representation was established, shaping the country’s modern statehood. While France aimed to promote stability, its legacy of confessionalism has contributed to political deadlock and sectarian tensions.
Ongoing Challenges
Despite its historical ties, France faces challenges in influencing Lebanon due to regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia, which exert control through groups like Hezbollah and various Sunni factions. Lebanon currently grapples with severe challenges, including an economic crisis, political dysfunction, and social unrest. While France can provide support, the underlying causes of these issues are internal and structural, complicating foreign intervention efforts.
The Path Ahead
As Lebanon stands at a critical juncture, the Paris aid conference represents a pivotal opportunity for international stakeholders to rally behind the beleaguered nation. The success of the conference will depend not only on financial aid but also on the commitment of Lebanon’s leaders to undertake meaningful reforms. The international community must recognize that a sustainable solution to Lebanon’s multifaceted crisis requires immediate relief and long-term engagement focused on rebuilding trust, fostering political stability, and addressing the root causes of sectarian divisions. The outcomes of the conference will be closely scrutinized as Lebanon’s future hangs in the balance.
