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Japan’s ruling coalition, under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, is to lose its upper-house majority after Sunday’s election, says NHK public broadcasting. The result is the second big blow to Ishiba’s leadership since a highly sensitive trade deadline with the US is approaching.
While the upper house vote does not automatically determine the government’s fate, it increases political pressure on Ishiba, who had already lost control of the more powerful lower house in October. NHK projected early Monday that Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito will be short of the 50 seats required to gain a majority in the 248-member chamber, with six races unresolved.
This latest electoral setback follows the coalition’s worst performance in 15 years during the lower house election last fall. It leaves Ishiba’s government increasingly exposed to no-confidence motions and calls for leadership change from within his own party.
In a Sunday night televised address, Ishiba accepted the outcome of the election, saying he “solemnly accepted the stern verdict.” Ishiba highlighted the importance of trade negotiations with Washington, declaring, “We are conducting very critical tariff talks with the United States. Our national interests require our complete attention.” Ishiba rejected reports of his possible resignation, stating he will continue to serve as both prime minister and leader of the party.
Japan must agree to a trade deal with the US by August 1, or face substantial tariffs on its exports. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is expected to come in second, and far-right Sanseito is on the rise, to take a minimum of 13 new seats. Sanseito has captured headlines with its nationalist “Japanese First” platform and anti-immigrant sound bites.
Increasing inflation and food price hikes, especially rice, have been key drivers of voter discontent. Opposition parties that campaigned on tax reductions and welfare outlays appealed to the voters, while the LDP’s focus on fiscal discipline didn’t resonate.
“The LDP was sort of on the defensive,” Eurasia Group’s David Boling said. “The polls indicated that voters wanted a consumption tax reduction to fight inflation, and the LDP did not want that. The opposition hammered that point home.
Analysts caution that whatever concessions Ishiba may now have to make to opposition parties to push through legislation would unnerve investors already nervous about Japan’s huge public debt. As immigration too becomes a contentious issue, Sanseito’s rise signifies a shift in the country’s political discussion, mirroring trends in far-right parties throughout Europe.
