The Arctic has drawn global attention recently, especially after US President-elect Donald Trump reiterated his desire to buy Greenland. While he cited national security reasons, many are more intrigued by the region’s mineral wealth. However, despite its potential, economic progress in the Arctic has largely stalled.
Fishermen Face Harsh Realities
For Norwegian fisherman, working in the Arctic Ocean is extremely challenging. At this time of year, the sun hasn’t risen since late October and won’t reappear until mid-February. Moreover, temperatures can drop below -40°C, and storms often bring enormous waves.
The “Cold Rush” Promises Opportunity
Notably, the Arctic “cold rush” began in 2008, fueled by reports of vast mineral and hydrocarbon reserves. These reserves, combined with rich fishing stocks, became more accessible as climate change reduced ice levels. Furthermore, melting ice opened new sea routes north of Canada and Russia.
Between 2013 and 2023, Arctic shipping distances more than doubled, from 6.1 million to 12.9 million miles. Consequently, many hoped these routes would connect Asia, Europe, and the U.S. more efficiently. Yet, progress has slowed significantly in recent years.
Geopolitical Tensions Interrupt Plans
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, much of the planned Arctic development came to a halt. According to Morten Mejlaender-Larsen of Norwegian firm DNV, “Russia had great Arctic plans.” They built rescue centers and supported oil and gas projects in Siberia. However, after the invasion, international shipping in Russian waters nearly ceased, except for a few Chinese ships.
Similarly, Norway halted oil and gas exploration in the Barents Sea. “It’s completely stopped. We don’t expect further developments north of Bear Island,” says Mejlaender-Larsen.
Environmentalists Applaud
Meanwhile, environmental groups welcome the slowdown. Norway’s decision to halt deep-sea mining between Svalbard and Jan Mayen was praised by Greenpeace. Critics have long warned about the environmental impact of Arctic drilling, which threatens wildlife and the delicate ecosystem.
Helene Tofte of the Norwegian Shipowners Association highlights why Arctic shipping remains difficult. “Even without ice, conditions are tough. Emergency support is scarce, and routes are unpredictable,” she explains.
Misplaced Optimism About Arctic Summers
Although climate change has reduced ice levels, experts warn the Arctic will remain inhospitable. Mejlaender-Larsen dismisses the idea of warm summers. “If it’s minus 40°C and gets 3°C warmer, it’s still not warm,” he points out.
Moreover, Prof. Arild Moe from the Fridtjof Nansen Institute argues that the “cold rush” was overly optimistic. “The 2008 reports referred to potential resources, not proven reserves,” he explains. Extracting these resources would be risky, costly, and difficult.
The Future of the Arctic
For now, the Arctic’s vast potential remains largely untapped. While geopolitical tensions and environmental risks persist, the region’s challenging conditions also act as a barrier. Nevertheless, as climate change continues, the Arctic will remain a focal point of interest.
