Elon Musk recently shared his concerns about the declining global population on X (formerly Twitter), emphasizing the issue as one of the biggest challenges humanity faces. In his post, Musk highlighted a graph showing projected population changes for several countries, including Nigeria, the US, Indonesia, and Pakistan, between 2018 and 2100. The post reflected his agreement with experts who argue that population decline is now the world’s most significant problem.

The Tesla Owners Silicon Valley account on X shared the graph with the caption, “Population collapse is humanity’s greatest threat… Elon Musk.” Musk retweeted the statement with a simple response: “Yes.”

China and India’s Population Projections

A 2020 study by the University of Washington projected that both India and China would have populations around 1.5 billion in 2018, but their growth trajectories will diverge sharply over the next century. By 2100, projections show India’s population will drop by approximately 400 million, reaching just under 1.1 billion. Meanwhile, China’s population will fall dramatically to 731.9 million, a staggering decrease of 731 million.

This decline would make Nigeria, with a projected population of 790.1 million by 2100, the world’s second-most populous country. The study suggests that population decline in China and India may occur faster than previously anticipated.

The Global Trend Toward Population Decline

Experts have warned for years that the world is heading toward a population decline. However, there is debate over the pace of this trend and its regional impacts. Key factors contributing to this decline include lower fertility rates, emigration, and aging populations. In many countries, the average number of children per woman has dropped below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to sustain population numbers.

According to the Office for National Statistics, in 2023, the average number of children per woman in England and Wales hit a record low of 1.44. Worldwide, fertility rates have significantly declined, from 5.3 children per woman in 1963 to less than half of that number today.

The US and Migration: A Buffer Against Population Decline

Despite falling fertility rates, the United States is expected to remain the fourth-largest country by population in 2100. This stability will be supported by positive net migration. Countries like Canada and Australia are expected to maintain semi-stable populations through migration.

Emerging Nations: Changing Demographics

By 2100, projections show that nations like Indonesia and Pakistan, which have seen significant growth, will experience slight population declines. The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia are predicted to surpass these countries in population size. This shift is expected to occur around the turn of the century.