China is expected to conduct military exercises near Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President William Lai’s upcoming trip to the Pacific and his rumored transit stops in the United States, according to assessments from Taiwanese and regional security officials.
The drills, likely to take place during or shortly after Lai’s trip, which concludes on December 6, are aimed at emphasizing Beijing’s opposition to actions it perceives as provocative, as reported by the Taipei Times. Lai is set to visit three of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in the Pacific beginning Saturday, with potential stopovers in Hawaii and Guam. While his office has not confirmed these US transits, sources familiar with the itinerary suggest details will be disclosed closer to his departure.
Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, condemned the planned stops, calling them “essentially provocative acts that violate the ‘one China’ principle.”
This year, China has already staged two significant rounds of military drills near Taiwan, referred to as “Joint Sword-2024A” and “Joint Sword-2024B.” Analysts speculate that Beijing could rebrand its ongoing operations as “Joint Sword-2024C,” framing routine military activities as part of a broader show of strength.
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A Taiwanese security official commented, “Beijing could expand the size of its regular ‘joint combat readiness patrol,'” potentially timing a “targeted exercise” for the conclusion of Lai’s trip, according to the Taipei Times. The drills are expected to align with Beijing’s broader aim of asserting regional dominance, particularly amid the transition to the incoming US administration of President-elect Donald Trump.
“Beijing wants to show the incoming US administration that the first island chain is ‘China’s sphere of influence,'” the official noted, adding, “Beijing hopes to draw a red line and establish its power” in response to perceived challenges from the US and its allies.
While winter weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait may limit the scale of the exercises compared to previous drills, they remain a strategic move to test Washington’s resolve. “The military drills were meant for the US and its allies,” a source told the Taipei Times. Another official observed that more favorable weather could lead to adjustments in the timing of Beijing’s show of force during Lai’s visit.
With approximately 20 to 30 Chinese naval vessels reportedly conducting maneuvers in the South China Sea this week, experts suggest Beijing is prepared to escalate military activities near Taiwan, using Lai’s trip as a pretext to reinforce its regional ambitions.
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