Bangladesh's political scene is in a cataclysmic shakeup. The one-time invincible coalition between the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) seems to be disintegrating. Increasing tensions, student unrest, and back-channel negotiations indicate that the Jamaat might now plan to take out its one-time ally prior to national elections.
Recent developments suggest that the Jamaat may be orchestrating public discontent and intraparty strife to induce a ban on the BNP, making its way to power in a post-Awami League Bangladesh.
Cracks Widen Between BNP and Jamaat
For years, BNP and Jamaat were Bangladesh's opposition pillars. Together, united against Sheikh Hasina's Awami League, they reached their peak in the early 2000s. But since the 2024 collapse of Hasina's government and the ascension to power of an interim government headed by Muhammad Yunus, tensions between the two have grown.
Reports indicate that the Jamaat is now threatening in earnest to demand a ban on the BNP. The objective appears straightforward: eliminate BNP as an election contender and gain monopolization of Islamist votes.
Campus Violence Raises Alarms
Violent clashes broke out between Chhatrashibir — the student affiliate of Jamaat — and the student organization of BNP over the weekend. Witnesses said BNP student activists were evicted from university dormitories, especially at Dhaka University.
The violence seems orchestrated. Jamaat is allegedly seeking to incite the BNP to countrywide mayhem. Once the country erupts into chaos, they plan to invoke national security as a reason to ban the BNP.
Jamaat's Political Realignment
Jamaat has realigned its political strategy. Formerly satisfied with operating in the shadow of BNP, it now aspires for autonomous dominance. Its overtures to extremist groups such as Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB) demonstrate its desire to enlarge its Islamist footprint.
BNP leaders have blamed Jamaat for promoting Islamist ideology in public life, particularly in the education and health sectors. The BNP is seemingly distancing itself, but risks alienating Islamist voters.
A Trap in the Making?
Analysts observe a pattern. Jamaat is isolating BNP by provoking confrontation and creating conditions for the interim government to ban it. This would give Jamaat a free field, especially with the Awami League already out of commission.
If it succeeds, this game plan would transform opposition politics into a strongly Islamist camp, pushing aside both secular voices and democratic coalitions.
BNP's Identity Crisis Deepens
BNP is now at a critical juncture. Does it reclaim its secular heritage and possibly lose hardline backing? Or does it keep tiptoeing between secularism and Islamism and become useless to both?
Recent BNP efforts to court IAB indicate the latter course. But this balancing act is proving unviable.
Islamist Organizations Fill the Power Vacuum
With Awami League out of the picture, hardline groups are stepping into the breach. Jamaat, Hizb ut-Tahrir-affiliated activists, and madrassa networks are gaining hold, particularly among students.
While Jamaat is not formally registered, it still exercises backdoor influence. It aims to dominate through makeshift combinations and tactical obstruction.
Calculated Political Elimination?
All indications are that Jamaat is making a slow but calculated move to drive BNP to the margins and out of the electoral fray. From instigating campus unrest to joining with radical elements, Jamaat is setting the stage for BNP's political ouster.
The BNP has to choose — and fast — whether to make a firm ideological assertion or risk being outmanoeuvred altogether. The result will decide not only the survival of the party, but also the future of democracy in Bangladesh.
