In the run-up to the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the news of turncoat politicians switching their allegiance from one party to another is coming in every day. Since BJP is ruling the state, it is faced with massive defection with the disgruntled leaders leaving the party. Since the BJP is boasting that only lotus will bloom in Uttar Pradesh once again, the question is why are several satraps leaving the party in the state? And how much will these defectors influence the final poll outcome?
As a matter of fact, everything was hunky-dory till just before the announcement of elections. Last week, the BJP core committee met in Delhi after which the news leaked out that the party is planning to deny tickets to more than 100 of its sitting MLAs. Soon after, Swami Prasad Maurya, a minister then, put in his papers. His resignation triggered a wave of resignations in UP. About a dozen MLAs, including three ministers, have resigned so far. Those who have resigned never had an emotional attachment with the RSS. Swami Prasad Maurya was close to Kanshi Ram and later Mayawati for a long time. He had joined BJP to get a ticket and also became a minister, thanks to dominance of caste politics. Now he has joined Samajwadi Party. Others who have crossed over have their own pockets of influence across the state.
The BJP’s loss seems to have worked to the advantage of the SP. Interestingly, Akhilesh Yadav has categorically stated that now he will not take any BJP MLA in the SP. The statement has raised eyebrows in political circles. After all, why did Akhilesh say this? Perhaps he wants to send a message to the voters that the situation is not favourable for the BJP and there is a stream of leaders eager to join the SP. On the other hand, he is also trying to send out a message to the people who joined the SP that they should not ask for tickets. Akhilesh knows that due to the farmers’ agitation, the BJP may suffer in western Uttar Pradesh. The BJP has not been able to keep Chaudhary Charan Singh’s grandson and Ajit Singh’s son Jayant Chaudhary in its fold. Efforts are on to persuade him but it is not easy. SP can derive political advantage from it. This is the reason why SP is focussing on Purvanchal and has roped in smaller parties. In the last election, BJP got 115 out of 160 seats in Purvanchal. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief minister Yogi Adityanath have been making frequent visits to Purvanchal to save the party stronghold. Purvanchal has received a total package of about Rs 95,000 crore so far.
The spate of defections which the BJP is now witnessing should be seen in terms of small parties versus big parties too. The politics of Uttar Pradesh has been witness to the fact that whenever big parties have become strong, small parties have suffered and whenever big parties have taken small parties along, the latters have benefitted immensely; so much so that their leaders later start creating trouble for the leading party itself. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not afraid of the regional parties. He knows that they cannot blight the prospects of the BJP. But if the national party like Congress has even 5 per cent voter base in UP, it can make a difference. That is the reason why he keeps attacking the Congress more.
Now let’s analyse what happened to the defectors in the previous elections. An analysis reveals that from 2014 to 2020, none of the 12 MPs who defected and contested as a candidate of another party were re-elected. Moreover, of the 357 MLAs who contested the Assembly elections after switching allegiance, 170 won again. Overall, 52 per cent of the 433 defected MLAs and MPs won. Let me remind you here that in the last three elections, voters have changed governments in UP. The BSP government was formed in 2007, the SP came to power 2012 and the BJP got power in 2017. This time, Yogiji is saying that he has spent Rs 5 lakh crore directly to empower the people of the state in the last five years. These beneficiaries will vote for BJP. But I can say on the basis of my experience that your works never fetch you votes. People get some freebies because the party in the government feels that if it shows its performance, it will get votes.
Religious polarisation and caste politics matter more in a state like UP. The BJP is considered an expert in religious polarisation. After Ram Janmabhoomi, the Krishna Janmabhoomi issue is being raised. And with saffron-clad Yogiji leading from the front, BJP will get a huge benefit of Hindu votes. Similarly, Muslims are in the SP camp at the moment, but Owaisi is also making every effort to attract Muslims. It can be said that the fight for being number two in wooing Muslim votes is between Owaisi and the Congress.
As for Mayawati, she is not making any move right now. Caught in her own web of political and economic constraints, she is nowhere to be seen. Notwithstanding this, she is the only leader of Dalits. Ahead of the polls, the Dalit and Jat leaders though are rallying together, the rift between the two communities has widened after the Muzaffarnagar incident.
Thus, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections will be quite interesting to watch. Let’s keep our fingers crossed!
The author is the chairman, Editorial Board of Lokmat Media and former member of Rajya Sabha.
The phenomenon of turncoat politicians is nothing new to Indian politics. Though we have the anti-defection law in place, the political parties are smart enough to find the escape route. The BJP may be at the receiving end right now but the question is will these turncoats make any difference in the end?
