A midst tall claims about the West Bengal Assembly elections, I was constantly telling my BJP friends that Mamata Banerjee will score a hat-trick. BJP will not be able to cross double digits despite all its efforts. I was saying all this not as a politician but as a journalist based on my analysis. I have always analysed Mamata Didi’s politics in depth. She is a grassroots leader and has a first-hand experience of overthrowing the Left from power. She has suffered lathi blows and knows how to break through the opposition’s defense.
The Bharatiya Janata Party was determined to oust the Mamata Banjerjee-led Trinamool Congress out of power in this Assembly election. For that, it had started the groundwork around two-and-a-half years back. All the big-time leaders, all the outfits associated with the BJP and the RSS deployed all the power and resources at their disposal. They polarised the Hindu vote. Star campaigners were fielded and they worked day and night for this purpose. The Sangh undertook a door-to-door contact programme to woo the voters. The ‘Chanakya Neeti’ of ‘Saam-Daam-DandBhed’ was fully utilised. As the election season approached, several political developments took place that took everybody by surprise. Many leaders who had gained political stature, thanks to Didi, crossed over to BJP. An atmosphere was created that indicated that Didi was all set to lose power this time..! But was Didi the one to give up so easily? She responded to each and every attack with her own firebrand counter-attack. She left her constituency and went to Nandigram and contested against her once confidante and now BJP candidate Suvendu Adhikari, who had left her and was contesting on a BJP ticket. The BJP’s strategy was successful. Mamata lost the election in Nandigram. Mamata Banerjee met with an accident during the election. Her movement became restricted. But Didi once again proved that she is a grassroots leader in West Bengal. No matter how many allegations of corruption and hooliganism have been levelled against her and her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, the people’s mandate went in her favour. Rather, Didi has emerged more powerful than before. Had Didi got the full support of the Congress, the situation would have been even more better. The Congress stopped campaigning in the fifth round, but by then the Congress had inflicted whatever damage it could on Mamata. Due to these initial mistakes, the possibility of division of Muslim votes increased. The BJP got its clear advantage too. The Congress and the Left suffered a humiliating defeat. Adhir Ranjan Chaudhary knew this. But it is clear that people have voted for Mamata to keep the secular forces strong
This election result of West Bengal can prove to be a big game changer in national politics. But before discussing this aspect, let us take a look at what happened in other states. Political analysts say that people have clearly told the Congress to appreciate the public sentiments and treat them accordingly. The Congress should respect the grassroots leaders who are closely connected with the people and let them take over the reins in the party. Kerala is a state where no party came to power for the second time in a row. This is for the first time that the Left retained power. The reason for this is that the Congress replaced those who were grassroots leaders and the high command handed over the leadership to K C Venugopal. Rahul Gandhi is an MP from Kerala. Analysts are saying that the Congress imposed Narayan Sami in Puducherry due to which they lost Puducherry. There was a lot of resentment against Sami due to which they lost power. Despite this, the Congress did not learn any lesson. The BJP’s strategy was successful in that they had already sacked the government of Puducherry.
In Assam, the Congress contested jointly with Badruddin Ajmal’s party All India United Democratic Front, but the strategy the latter had devised failed. Hemant Biswa Sarma was a grassroots leader, but after he joined the BJP, the Congress was in tatters and the result was that despite taking Ajmal along, the Congress could not get the desired results.
As far as Tamil Nadu is concerned, I had a conversation with Stalin and also those close to him. When I went there, it was clear to me that Stalin would come to power because he had been working at the ground level for years. After Jayalalithaa’s departure, Palaniswami’s government was facing serious allegations of corruption. Stalin took full advantage of it. Despite the BJP’s help, the AIADMK could not do anything there. As far as the Congress is concerned, it was clearly at Stalin’s mercy. Stalin was not happy with the Congress, but considering Sonia Gandhi, he had allotted 25 seats to the Congress but the party lost the high-stake political battle there too.
Let us now return to West Bengal where Didi has shown amazing power. She has not only retained power in West Bengal, but also ignited a ray of hope in the opposition politics of the country. Now it is to be seen how the secular forces in the country come together and what strategy Soniaji adopts. Will she adopt the strategy like when she went to Mayawati’s house on foot? Will she adopt the same strategy and move forward with the veterans of every state..? Or become a part of UPA-2 in which Sharad Pawar succeeded in bringing everyone under one flag by becoming its convener? It is difficult to say anything right now but it is crystal clear that the fight ahead is not going to be BJP vs Secular Force but Narendra Modi vs all. In this scenario, it will be interesting to watch what Mamata Didi’s stand will be!
BEFORE I CONCLUDE
Elections are over but what is worrying is how many people might have got infected with the coronavirus as a result of their participation in election gatherings, rallies and congregations and what the virus will do to them. It is reported that coronavirus is most widely spread in Maharashtra, but the data dished out by the Government of India is very shocking. In the states where Assembly elections or panchayat elections were held, Covid-19 cases have increased exponentially due to rallies and meetings. In April, the number of Covid-19 patients increased by 5412 per cent in Assam, 1266 per cent in West Bengal, 1229 per cent in Kerala, 1227 per cent in UP, 563 per cent in Tamil Nadu and 359 per cent in Puducherry. This is something called a gross negligence!
The author is the chairman, Editorial Board of Lokmat Media and former member of Rajya Sabha