You all must have heard a movie song, “Begani shadi mein Abdullah diwana!” The movie was ‘Jis Desh Mein Ganga Behti Hai’. You might wonder why I am reminding you of this song. Since the US presidential election has been making headlines worldwide, these lines keep recurring in my mind: “Why is the world so crazy about someone else’s affair?”
Normally, elections in any country draw the attention of other nations, especially those with close or complex relationships. Every country tries to gauge whose victory would be more beneficial for them. But when it comes to the US, the whole world watches because the US is a nation that influences every other country. Its influence extends from the East to the West and from the North Pole to the South Pole. It is natural to speculate about changes in global politics based on who becomes the US President. You might remember that Donald Trump was fighting a war in Afghanistan, but as soon as Joe Biden assumed reins of office, he abruptly called back the troops, leaving Afghanistan to its own fate. There are many such examples. This is why the world is currently engrossed in the debate over whether the Republican candidate Donald Trump will win or the Democrat Kamala Harris! Although Kamala Harris has not yet officially become a candidate, it is certain that she will! And if she is elected, she will be the first lady President of the educated and most developed US.
I will particularly discuss who would be more favourable for India. Since we Indians are emotionally attached to relationships, we were thrilled when Rishi Sunak became the Prime Minister of Britain, and when Kamala Harris’ name emerged as a potential candidate, celebrations started in Thulasendrapuram village, 300 kilometres from Chennai, because Kamala’s mother, Shyamala, went to the US from this village. But does Kamala Harris have a special place in her heart for India? I don’t think so. Her mother was Indian and her father was from Jamaica, but she doesn’t show much enthusiasm for her roots. In fact, she has often adopted an anti-India stance. When Article 370 was abrogated in Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, she had opposed it. She had even said, “We want to remind Kashmiris that they are not alone. We are watching the situation.” A person with a friendly disposition would never say such a thing. I also want to remind you that when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the US in 2021, he invited Kamala to visit India, but she responded by raising concerns about democracy. During the PM’s visit to the US in 2023, he praised Kamala a lot, but since becoming Vice President, she has never leaned towards India! The truth is she has shown no interest in enhancing the India-US relations so far.
Now let’s consider what will happen to the India-US relations if Donald Trump wins. Generally, it is believed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump have a strong personal relationship. When Trump visited India in February 2020, a grand event was organised for him in Gujarat, and you might remember the Howdy Modi event in the US before that. Recently, when Trump was attacked, Narendra Modi was among the first global leaders to condemn the attack. Trump knows that India plays a significant role in his stance against China. India is an emerging power in the world, so it is obvious that he will give priority to India under all circumstances. But is Trump overtly beneficial for India? I have doubts because when it comes to the US interests, naturally, be it Kamala or Trump, the US will be their priority, and Trump is a staunch supporter of the ‘America First’ policy. During the election campaign, Trump targeted India over the issue of higher taxes on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, but his tone was not very harsh.
Moreover, let me tell you that Trump has fielded J D Vance as his running mate and his wife Usha is of Indian origin. So, whether it’s the Republicans or the Democrats, there is an Indian connection on both sides. However, only five out of 535 members of the US Congress are of Indian origin. So, there is no need to harbour excessive illusions. Whether 78-year-old Trump or 59-year-old Kamala Harris sits on the US President’s chair, they will naturally think more about the US interests rather than India’s. There is no need to be crazy about and dance at someone else’s wedding! Rather, we need to think about how to wield the US to our benefit… and for this, we have a virtuoso foreign minister like S Jaishankar
The author is the chairman, Editorial Board of Lokmat Media and former member of Rajya Sabha.