Assembly elections are often seen as a sort of weather vane to gauge the mood in between various general elections. This is not necessarily accurate—recall the 2008 Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh elections that the BJP swept only to lose the 2009 general elections. And more recently, in 2018 the BJP lost the three states, only to sweep the general elections.
However, having stated that, there is no denying that political pundits look at the Assembly elections to check the popularity of a government at the Centre. Post the lockdown the Bihar elections of November 2020 were keenly watched to see if the impact of a lockdown that saw thousands of migrant workers trudging on the road from the metros back to Bihar would have an impact on the vote. Would the migrants blame the Prime Minister for their troubles, for not giving them enough warning to rush back to their homes in the villages before they lost their jobs in their cities. For not helping them as they trekked across state boundaries carrying all their belongings on their back.
Interestingly, they did not blame the PM for their woes as the BJP went on to get the highest number of seats in that election. Just as the voters of Uttar Pradesh did not blame PM Narendra Modi for the demonetisation of 2016 in the elections that followed a few months later (the BJP swept UP in the 2017 polls), the voters of Bihar too did not seem to lay the blame at PM Modi’s door. Instead, it was Nitish Kumar, the sitting CM, who bore the brunt of their anger, for not ensuring that the people of Bihar were given adequate buses and resources to return home, and for not providing enough jobs in the state in the first place so that the citizens of the state would not have to go out to look for work. In the end, the PM’s teflon coating remained intact. The general impression is that he means well, that he has the right intent, and if the delivery is botched up (as it often is, while implementing lockdown, an unwieldy GST, a badly execution demonetisation), then it is not his fault but the fault of the bureaucrats and those responsible for executing his intent.
Given this background, it is virtually impossible for any state leader to win against PM Modi, but there have been some instances where the BJP has been defeated (ever since Modi became PM) and not just by regional satraps like Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee, and even Nitish Kumar (2015); but also by the Congress—in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Punjab.
Which is why one is watching the Mamata Banerjee vs Narendra Modi battle in West Bengal very closely. Yes of course, it is not a CM vs PM battle but since the BJP has not put up a CM face and since it is Modi’s face on most of the state hoardings and he is the party’s star campaigner, it is safe to assume that this is a Mamata Banerjee vs the Modi-Shah duo battle. And the feisty leader from West Bengal seems to be matching the PM on rhetoric, drama and mass connect.
If the BJP fails to grasp the state, will it have an impact on the next general election. Probably not. It may not even have an impact on the next state polls in Uttar Pradesh due next year. But it will send a strong message to the Opposition that the Modi juggernaut can be halted. For, if the BJP wins West Bengal then its sweep over the North, East and most of West will be established and Home Minister Amit Shah will point his Ashwamedh Rath to the South. We are told Tamil Nadu is his next big target after West Bengal. Hence it is important in the battle of optics and perceptions for the Opposition to hold on to West Bengal. And it could not have found a better general to lead the charge than Mamata Banerjee.