Though Ronald Reagan credited the US for bringing down the Soviet Empire in 1991, millions of Russians believed that it was the forces of Perestroika and Glasnost which Mikhail Gorbachev unleashed that eventually led to the dissolution of the erstwhile Soviet Union. No wonder, Gorbachev was hated in Russia; his popularity plummeted to 3.5%. Vladimir Putin, like many Russians, felt humiliated at the “disintegration of historic Russia” and never forgave Gorbachev. The fact that the overstretched Soviet Empire had become economically unsustainable was brushed aside.
But without Gorbachev, the Berlin Wall might have not come down and there won’t have been a unified Germany! Understandably, in Germany, he was hailed as a hero; over 85% of Germans had a favourable opinion of Gorbachev.
Though in his memoir, Gorbachev had talked of some assurances about no eastward expansion of NATO, surprisingly, he retracted his claim later. However, Putin believed that the assurances did exist. In Dec 2021, he was quoted to have quipped, “You promised us in 1990 that (NATO) would not move an inch to the East. You cheated us shamelessly.”
Putin was particularly sensitive about Ukraine, “if Ukraine were to join NATO, it would serve as a direct threat to the security of Russia.” He felt Ukraine could become a “springboard” for NATO’s strike against Russia. Putin’s action in Georgia and his annexation of Crimea in 2014 should have rung alarm bells in NATO HQ that Putin might act again if his redlines were crossed.
But NATO expanded recklessly giving membership to 14 countries coming too close eastward; it rattled and alarmed Russia. Reports of defence supplies and putting cyberwarfare & space warfare in the operational domain in Ukraine might have exacerbated Putin’s suspicions and insecurity. NATO’s disdainful dismissal of Putin’s objections pointing out that Russia couldn’t have a veto on the grant of NATO membership would have enraged him.
Russia wanted a legally binding pledge that Nato won’t expand further. Recently, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov put it bluntly, “for us, it is absolutely mandatory to ensure Ukraine never ever becomes a member of NATO.” Putin left no doubt about how he felt: Russia has “nowhere further to retreat to.” Do they think, we’ll just sit idly by?”
Putin also demanded that NATO won’t deploy “strike weapons near Russia’s borders”, and remove forces and military infrastructure from member states that joined the alliance from 1997. In other words, Russia would like NATO to go back to pre-1997 borders.
Though in 1994, Russia had signed an agreement for respecting the independence of Ukraine, last year, Putin described the Russians and Ukrainians as one nation and claimed that modern Ukraine was created by communist Russia. In his long speech on20th February 22, Putin laid an unambiguous claim on the entire Ukraine.
Putin’s security concerns are legitimate. NATO Expansion has been reckless and insensitive. One can also understand his sense of humiliation at the collapse of the Soviet Union and even his dreams to restore Russia’s global clout and influence of the past. The US & NATO & EU can’t be absolved of the blame for addressing Russian concerns callously.
But nothing can justify Putin’s brazen and brutal invasion of Ukraine resulting in loss of innocent lives, destruction of infrastructure and properties, and disruption of lives of lakhs of ordinary citizens who became desperate refugees in neighboring states.
Putin must be stopped. Violation of the sovereignty and integrity of an independent nation must not be condoned. If Putin gets away with this, it will set up a disastrous precedent and lead to total anarchy in international relations.
What will happen if the PLA of China rolls down thousands of its soldiers with tanks and artillery from the LAC? India is aware of terrorists’ training camps and hideouts of masterminds of 26/11 attack. Should India invade Pakistan to capture them?
In 2003, the US invaded Iraq on totally false charges. It was wrong. But Bush, at least, had a fig leaf of a UN Resolution. Putin Just moved in taking advantage of a weakened USA after its humiliating exit from Afghanistan and strained Sino-American relations and realizing that neither the US nor NATO will put boots on the ground.
The slew of stringent sanctions announced by the US and EU & G-7 members including the ban on SWIFT facilities, withdrawal of FedEx services, closure of skies for Russian aircrafts, and hunting down Russian oil supplies will have a crippling effect on Russia’s already weak economy, but over a time.
Economist, Lord Meghnad Desai feels that China remains the only country that has the economic means to help Russia bear the sting of the economic sanctions. If it is clever enough, Russia can also use digital currency (cryptocurrency) to breach American and its allies’ ban on Swift transactions.
But doesn’t China’s abstention in the UNSC vote on the Ukraine crises carry a message for Russia? China can’t support it beyond a point given her huge economic interests in the US and the EU.
Given her continuing dependence on Russian defence supplies and burgeoning multidimensional relationship with USA, covering numerous fields including defense, energy, new technologies, trade, business, and investment, and her priority to bring back all Indians safely, India’s abstention in the UNSC was right.
But Russia’s flagrant invasion must be condemned. Silence on this account will send the wrong message to potential invaders.
Yes, the US and NATO can’t send troops but can’t they unleash cyberwarfare against Russia and end the invasion of Ukraine?
Fearless Zelensky fighting passionately to save his motherland deserves to be supported. Spontaneous protests not only in different world capitals but even inside Russia and the stiff resistance put up by Ukraine should be a wake-up call for Putin. One wonders if he has lost his mental balance, hence flaunting the nuclear card.
Nevertheless, Putin’s security concerns are legitimate. NATO expansion has been ‘reckless and insensitive’. One can also understand his sense of humiliation at the collapse of the Soviet Union and his dreams to restore Russia’s global clout and influence of the past.