As Russia struggles to maintain its dwindling influence in Syria after the recent collapse of the Assad regime, it is stepping up its military activities in Libya, making the North African country a strategic new base for its operations in West Asia and Africa.
Russia used Syria as an anchor for decades. Its bases in Tartus and Latakia gave Moscow its only foothold for projecting its power across the Mediterranean and deep into Africa. Last month’s ouster of Bashar al-Assad’s government dealt a double blow to Russia-by removing its presence in Syria itself as well as cutting off the most critical military bases that had made it possible in the first place. Assad’s regime had been propped up by Russian military intervention in 2015, but with the recent political shift, Russia’s presence in Syria is now at the mercy of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with different interests that is seeking engagement with the West.
The Kremlin has responded sharply by rapidly redeploying all operations to Libya where it has grabbed strategic airbases, including Al Khadim airbase in Benghazi. Russian flights from Syria to Libya are on the rise, using transport aircraft like the Antonov AN-124 and Ilyushin IL-76 to move in troops and equipment.
Political fragmentation in Libya has allowed Russia to establish a foothold of military might there, positioning it as a power likely to influence other African nations. Boosting its presence in Libya will enable Russia to maintain its reach across the Mediterranean and into Africa through countries such as Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic. Experts believe Libya could be a sort of central hub for Russian operations in Africa, helping the country extend its geopolitical influence and push back against Western power.
For now, Russia’s foray into Libya represents a new page for its regional supremacy strategy, with hopes to finally solidify its position in Sahel and Central Africa
