Will Trump’s Trade War Leave Americans Without Toilet Paper? Here’s Why

Former US President Donald Trump’s belligerent tariff policies may have an unforeseen effect—possible nationwide shortages of toilet paper. Analysts say that the trade war’s effect on Canadian lumber imports can upset the supply chain for a critical material that goes into American toilet paper manufacturing.

This has raised concerns of a repeat pandemic-era shortages when panic shopping emptied out store shelves. Moreover, customers may also encounter increasing costs for base household items.

How Tariffs Might Impact Toilet Paper Supply

Trump’s planned tariffs on imports from Canada feature a 27% tariff on lumber, potentially raising the price of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK)—an essential ingredient in toilet paper production. Other sources indicate that the tariffs might drive the rate higher than 50%.

Though Trump contends tariffs will stimulate U.S. manufacturing, industry analysts point out that Canadian softwood pulp possesses special qualities that cannot readily be substituted with American products.

Brian McClay, who tracks the international pulp business for BMA, described the reliance on Canadian material:

“Some of the larger branded products don’t just need softwood pulp from Canada; they need softwood pulp from this specific mill. They have been using it for 30 years, and they will not switch.

As pulp comes from sawmill wood chips, any disruption in sawmills through increased tariffs might directly influence the production of pulp and therefore have an impact on American toilet paper manufacturers.

Ripple Effect throughout the Supply Chain

Presently, America imports around 10% of toilet paper, of which nearly half originates in Canada. Dino Bianco, the CEO of Kruger Products, which is Canada’s leading toilet paper manufacturer, suggests that extra tariffs will result in devastating disruptions.

Industry leaders warn that if lumber import duties go above 50%, sawmills might have to close shop, cutting the supply of wood chips for pulp. McClay stressed the possible implications:

“That’s going to put some sawmills out of business, and that’ll reduce the supply of wood chips.”

Jean-Francois Samray, chief of the Quebec Forest Industry Council, analogized the structure of the softwood industry to infrastructure networks such as power grids:

It’s like pipelines, it’s like power grids: It’s all full, or all empty.”

This is because sawmills are either working at maximum levels or closing completely, which creates a decrease in pulp production and possible shortages in toilet paper and paper towels.

Impact of Trump’s Trade War

Today, the U.S. charges more than 14% in tariffs on Canadian timber. One of those tariffs is slated to increase, raising the total rate to nearly 27%. Moreover, the White House’s suggested 25% tariff on a range of Canadian products may raise the total import tax to about 52%.

In addition to these steps, Trump has also ordered a review of possible national security threats from wood imports, which could result in even greater tariffs.

What’s Next?

The Trump administration will impose a new wave of tariffs on April 2, which he has dubbed “Liberation Day.” Economists caution these actions could have far-reaching implications, not only on the availability of toilet paper but on numerous industries and consumer prices.

Trump’s more general tariff policy, announced as part of his “America First Trade Policy,” is designed to shrink trade deficits by imposing reciprocal tariffs on those countries that export more to the U.S. than they import. Critics, though, say these policies will lead to increased costs for consumers and supply chain problems in several sectors.