The United States has tabled a 30-day ceasefire plan in Russia’s conflict in Ukraine as a first step towards securing a long-term peace plan but before negotiations even take place. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, fears that President Vladimir Putin may seek to thwart the process through putting in place constraints that prolong the war.
Ukraine is coming under increasing pressure to sign up to the ceasefire, especially since US President Donald Trump halted military aid and intelligence cooperation. Trump is expected by Kyiv to use sanctions on Moscow to encourage Putin to accept the conditions of the deal.
Trump and Putin are to meet today (March 18) to discuss the issue, with the main issues being border conflicts and energy resources, which Trump has referred to as “dividing up certain assets.” Although there is a chance of a temporary ceasefire, both Russia and Ukraine have established strong conditions that they are not ready to negotiate on.
Russia’s Position and Main Demands
Since beginning a full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, Putin has repeatedly urged Ukraine to leave NATO, scale back its military, and maintain Russian cultural and language connections.
At the latest negotiations, Moscow insisted on Ukraine’s pullout of troops from four regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—that Russia unjustifiably annexed in September 2022 but never effectively controlled.
Other Russian demands are the removal of US and EU sanctions and the unfreezing of Russian assets frozen in the West. The Trump administration has reportedly shown a readiness to negotiate lifting these restrictions.
Putin has also reasserted his demand for resolution of the “root causes of the crisis,” i.e., Russia’s resistance to NATO military expansion along its borders. He also continues to demand that Zelenskyy is no longer a rightful leader, maintaining that his term as president expired last year. But Ukraine holds that elections are impossible during wartime.
Moscow has also stood firmly against sending NATO troops as peacekeepers to monitor any ceasefire.
Ukraine’s Conditions for Peace
With serious military defeats on the 1,000-kilometer front, Ukraine has moderated its initial call to fully restore pre-2014 borders. Instead, Kyiv is looking for a security-fortified peace agreement that would guarantee long-term security against future Russian attacks.
France and Britain are at the forefront of negotiations on alternative security assurances, exploring a multinational force that would offer military assistance in case of a renewed conflict. With the current US position, Ukraine’s NATO membership is not certain, making such pacts even more vital.
Zelenskyy has also sought enhanced military capacity, insisting on the escalation of arms supplies and the creation of a local weapons industry to limit dependence on foreign allies.
Also, Ukraine is not willing to surrender further land to Russia and insists on the release of thousands of detainees in Russian jails, including children unlawfully transferred to Russia.
Red Lines That Cannot Be Crossed in Negotiations
The negotiations continue to be difficult owing to inflexible stances by both sides. The US has underlined the necessity for compromise, but the fate of the occupied Ukrainian lands remains the most contentious item.
For Moscow, the deployment of NATO troops in any sort of peacekeeping role is not negotiable. Nevertheless, Russia has yet to make any public suggestions of concessions.
Conversely, Ukraine continues to maintain it will never acknowledge Russian authority over its occupied lands. While this continues to be the formal stance of Kyiv, Ukrainian officials admit that, at least in the short term, these territories are most likely to stay in the control of Russia.
Zelenskyy recently reiterated Ukraine’s position, saying, “Partners know our red lines—that we do not recognize the occupied territories as the territories of the Russian Federation, and we do not recognize them. This is my political will as president. And this is the political will of our people. This is a violation of international law and the Constitution of Ukraine.”
Ukraine also objects severely to any limits on its military power or access to global coalitions like the European Union and NATO.
With both countries holding firm, the success of the US-offered truce and wider peace talks is uncertain.
