US President Donald Trump’s recent statements on Russian oil have escalated global tensions. Trump, frustrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s denial of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy, threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil. These tariffs would apply if Putin fails to agree to a ceasefire. The secondary tariffs would target countries buying Russian oil, with China, India, and Turkey facing financial penalties. While Trump has been open to negotiations with Moscow, this marks a tougher stance. These tariffs could destabilize the global oil market and complicate matters for countries like India, which is heavily dependent on Russian crude oil.

Trump’s Growing Frustration with Putin and Zelenskyy’s Legitimacy

Trump’s anger toward Vladimir Putin stems from the Russian leader’s dismissal of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy. Putin claims that Zelenskyy cannot sign a peace agreement due to Ukraine’s martial law. This position traces back to Russia’s view that Ukraine’s 2014 government change, which ousted pro-Russian President Yanukovych, was unlawful.

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Although Trump has previously shown a willingness to engage in peace talks, he condemned Putin’s efforts to replace Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He stated that such actions would delay peace talks. Donald Trump noted that he and Putin share a “good relationship” and that his frustration might disappear if Putin takes the right actions. This hardens Trump’s position, increasing pressure on Russia.

What Are Secondary Tariffs and How Do They Affect Trade?

Secondary tariffs are penalties a country imposes on nations trading with another nation already under sanctions. In this case, Trump would target countries buying Russian oil. This strategy differs from traditional sanctions, which directly focus on the target country. Secondary sanctions, like those imposed on Iran and Venezuela, aim to discourage other nations from engaging in sanctioned trade.

Trump’s additional tariffs would pressure countries continuing to buy Russian oil amid the Ukraine conflict. If Trump follows through, China, India, and Turkey could face heavy tariffs. These countries depend heavily on Russian oil. In 2024, Russia supplied 35% of India’s crude oil, and 19% of China’s oil came from Russia. If Trump enforces the tariffs, these nations may face disrupted energy markets and rising costs.

India’s Strategic Dilemma and the Impact of Secondary Tariffs

India’s dependence on Russian crude oil puts it in a tough position if Trump enforces secondary tariffs. India imports 35% of its crude oil from Russia and has been refining discounted Russian oil and exporting it to Western countries. This practice has allowed Russia to bypass sanctions and sell oil at a competitive price.

If secondary tariffs are imposed, India faces a difficult choice. It must balance its energy needs with its trade relations with the US. India, the world’s second-largest exporter of refined oil to the US, risks straining ties with a key trading partner. The financial impact of these tariffs could force India to reconsider its position on Russian oil.

Who Will Be Most Affected by Secondary Tariffs on Russian Oil?

China, India, and Turkey will feel the most impact from secondary tariffs. These nations are the largest buyers of Russian oil, and their economic relations with the US make the tariffs a double-edged sword.

India faces added pressure. It buys Russian oil, refines it, and sells it to the West. If Trump imposes secondary tariffs, India will be caught between its energy needs and its trade relations with the US. Additionally, Trump has already criticized India’s tariffs on US products, and these new tariffs could escalate tensions. They might also push global oil prices higher as countries scramble for alternative sources, further destabilizing the already volatile market.

Will Trump’s Threats Work?

Trump’s threat to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil is significant, but its effectiveness remains unclear. Trump’s previous economic threats often lacked follow-through. Experts, including Keir Giles from Chatham House, warn that Trump’s threats tend to be unpredictable. Enforcing secondary tariffs would represent a significant policy shift, with major consequences for global energy markets.

However, if Trump carries out the threat, China, India, and Turkey could face severe repercussions. The cost of buying Russian oil and dealing with US tariffs could outweigh the benefits. This could reshape the global oil landscape, especially in the context of the ongoing Ukraine war and the post-pandemic recovery.