Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's divorce from State Senator Angela Paxton, this week filed on 'biblical grounds' and 'recent discoveries', raised questions about his 2026 Senate bid against John Cornyn. The divorce, which was announced amidst a charged Republican primary, could place Paxton on the backburner against Cornyn and possible Democratic opponents such as Jasmine Crockett.
“Today, after 38 years of marriage, I filed for divorce on biblical grounds,” Angela Paxton said on X, platform formerly knowna as Twitter. “I believe marriage is a sacred covenant and I have earnestly pursued reconciliation. But in light of recent discoveries, I do not believe that it honors God or is loving to myself, my children, or Ken to remain in the marriage.”
“I move forward with complete confidence that God is always working everything together for the good of those who love Him and who are called according to His purpose,” she added.
A poll in May indicated Paxton with a strong advantage against incumbent Sen John Cornyn in a two-candidate or a three-candidate race in next year's Republican primary. His advantage in the poll, however, diminished significantly against possible Democratic opponents.
The Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll indicated the Texas AG by 9 percentage points ahead of his primary challenger.
“Right now, if it's a head-to-head race between Paxton and Cornyn, Paxton is a very strong favorite, and it's tough to see how, absent, say, a Trump endorsement of Cornyn, Cornyn could effectively flip the table on Paxton,” Mark Jones, political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute and co-author of the survey with TSU's Michael O Adams, said.
A Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) survey (April 27–May 1, 2025) had Paxton leading 56% to 40%, or 44% to 34% with Hunt at 19%.
A Houston Chronicle survey (mid-April 2025) indicated Paxton was up by 17 points (50% to 33%), and a Democratic poll indicated a 20-point advantage.
Jasmine Crockett has made no announcement of a 2026 Senate bid, and no surveys directly pit her against Paxton or Cornyn.
Surveys indicate Paxton weak against Democratic hopeful Colin Allred. TSU polling has Allred ahead of Paxton 52-37, while Cornyn is ahead of Allred by 6 points.
