WMO Predicts Brief La Niña Phase Likely Before March

La Niña conditions are anticipated to emerge within the next three months, though the phase is expected to be weak and short-lived, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced on Wednesday.

La Niña is characterized by extensive cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in tropical atmospheric patterns, including winds, pressure, and rainfall. In contrast, El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In India, El Niño typically leads to harsher summers and weaker monsoons, whereas La Niña brings stronger monsoons, above-average rainfall, and colder winters.

WMO cautioned that naturally occurring climate phenomena like La Niña and El Niño are influenced by human-induced climate change, which is raising global temperatures, intensifying extreme weather, and altering seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.

“The year 2024 started with El Niño and is on track to be the hottest on record. Even if La Niña does develop, its short-term cooling effect will not offset the warming caused by record greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere,” stated WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

“Despite the absence of El Niño or La Niña since May, we’ve seen extraordinary extreme weather, including record-breaking rainfall and flooding, which has sadly become the new norm in our changing climate,” Saulo added.

This year’s La Niña predictions have been challenging. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a La Niña watch in May, yet its development remained uncertain through October. Experts attribute this to factors like global warming, which hindered sufficient cooling, and unfavorable atmospheric conditions in September and October.

As of November 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions persist, with slightly below-average sea surface temperatures in the central to eastern Pacific. However, these temperatures have not reached La Niña thresholds, potentially due to strong westerly wind anomalies from September to November, which hindered cooling. Seasonal forecasts for ENSO phases and their global climate impacts are crucial for early warnings and proactive measures, WMO emphasized.