It’s complete chaos in Syria. The end of the Assad dynasty that ruled Syria for five decades, came suddenly—out of the blue. The army of Bashar Al Assad—who had been at the helm of Syria for 24 years, taking over from his father Hafez Al Assad in 2000—just melted away as the opposition forces comprising a hotchpotch of rebel fighters, militants and terrorists from Al Qaeda and ISIS just swooped down on capital Damascus, after capturing city after city. At the time of writing, Assad is supposed to have fled to Russia, one of his main backers, the other being Iran. That neither of these two countries helped Assad when he needed their support, is proof of their own weaknesses. Both are reeling under western sanctions. The war in Ukraine is taking a toll on Russia’s health and Iran has been a spent force for a long time, even though both countries have great power ambitions. One of the reasons behind the sudden collapse is believed to be the hollowing out of Assad’s army in the 13-year-long civil war that has hobbled Syria, killing over 600,000 people, while displacing over half the country’s population. As it is western sanctions have taken a major toll on Syria, with the army impacted heavily as morale went down. Once Russia and Iran decided to pull support, realising the gravity of the rebel intent, the Syrian government collapsed like a house of cards, and the rebels led by Abu Mohammed al Golani, just walked into Damascus in scenes reminiscent of the Taliban takeover of Kabul in 2021.
The irony is that Golani is a terrorist according to the United States, and his group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a terror organisation. But they are now being celebrated by Western governments for overthrowing the dictatorship of Assad, and making Russia and Iran leave Syria. According to US experts, Golani, who was a part of the insurgency in Iraq against American forces sent there by George W. Bush, was responsible for the killing of innumerable American soldiers. The Obama administration declared him to be a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist”, while the Trump administration went a step further to announce a reward of $10 million on his head. Golani’s deep rooted bond with Al Qaeda and ISIS are a fact of his life. In fact, it was the first caliph of the ISIS, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, who asked Golani to set up a branch of Al Qaeda, called Nusra Front in 2011. In 2016, Golani cut his ties with Al Qaeda and started operating independently, eventually renaming his group as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which means, Organisation for Liberating Syria. His past being a hurdle towards the rebranding of Golani as a moderate Islamic ruler, his whitewashing has started by western mainstream media, obviously at the direction of their respective governments. Golani is assuring the West that he no longer holds extreme views about the “Great Satan” USA or followers of other religions, and that he will not look beyond the borders of Syria—that the West is not on his radar. But the fact is, there are already celebrations in his ranks that the takeover of Syria by them also means the wiping out of Israel—a cause that Islamists hold close to their heart. So there is a strong possibility that the rebels will start pushing outward to extend the war into the neighbourhood. From there how much time it takes for these extremists to start targeting western interests is anybody’s guess. So the West just might have created another Frankenstein. After all, leopards and indoctrinated extremists rarely change their spots.
Israel has reasons to celebrate Assad’s downfall, because Iran was using Syria as a conduit to finance and arm the Hezbollah against the Jewish state. With Iran’s departure, that supply chain has been disrupted. But Israel has no reason to trust the bunch of extremists and terrorists who will now rule over Damascus, because of which it has moved its forces several kilometres inside the Syrian Golan Heights for the first time after a 1974 ceasefire, to create a buffer zone. It has also started bombing Damascus to ensure that the extremists are not able to lay their hands on Assad’s arms depots, because if the “rebels” get hold of that deadly arsenal, Israel will be one of their first targets.
There is no doubt that Assad was a brutal ruler, and is guilty of many crimes, but there is no reason to celebrate his replacement with a bunch of Al Qaeda and ISIS aligned terrorists—for that is what exactly they are. The worry now is the revival of ISIS, which, by the way, had the backing of Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is now backing the HTS and the other extremists in charge of Syria as well. The situation in Syria is bound to be volatile for a long time to come. The possibility of the return of ISIS-style harsh Islamist rule—the kind of atrocities the world had seen when the ISIS was at its peak a decade ago—cannot be ruled out. As the ISIS returns, sadly, this time it is likely to have the stamp of approval from the West, specifically the United States, which is already considering dropping the $10 million reward on Golani’s head. The Pandora’s Box has been opened and all sorts of malign forces have been let out. Only time will tell how big a price the world will pay for this.
