For more than a decade intent signals have been the pet rock of adtech. If a user typed something into a search box, visited a site, or left something in a cart, we viewed it as a windfall—time to target, retarget, and convert. The logic was unassailable: if they’re “showing intent,” they’re ready to engage.
But here’s the uncomfortable reality—intent data is not the magic bullet it used to be. In fact, if we continue to treat it as the holy grail, we’re starting to hold the industry back.
Does the ‘Perfect Signal’ Exist?
We have romanticized intent. It is intriguing because it is tangible – someone searches, “the best gaming laptop 2025,” and your ad is delivered like an outstretched hand. But intent, unfortunately, is not a direct line to conversion.
The noise is getting louder: People search aspirationally, they research because they are curious, they sometimes click, but not to purchase.
The signals have a lag: That website visit a week ago? Maybe the need was satisfied offline, or the search discarded altogether.
The platforms exaggerate: Many intent-based targeting solutions, mainly search-related, come from opaque data aggregation. The data seems accurate, yet probabilistic at best.
Now your campaigns that are prospecting “hot leads” often target cold prospects, wasting impressions and money!
Why is the Old Model Phasing Out?
The industry has invested extensively in the “intent = outcome” math, but changes in technology and consumer behavior will inevitably reduce its reliance.
Privacy-first reality – The browser environment’s constraints, consent frameworks, and data minimization principles lead to less granularity and less trackable user behavior.
Fragmented attention – Intent signals now exist across devices, walled gardens, and niche platforms which makes holistic tracking practically impossible.
Signal Commoditization – When every DSP, network, and DMP markets “intent segments,” your differentiation goes away. Everyone is fishing in the same pond.
The Road Ahead
Therefore, if we can’t trust intent alone, what do we trust? The solution is not to discard signals – it is to use those signals in conjunction with richer, contextual intelligence and measurements of targeted outcomes.
Context over Clicks
Change our mindset from seeking a single signal. Incorporate observational contextual intelligence of content areas, time-of-day patterns, device usage, and combine those with lighter engagement signals. Thus, a travel ad placed on a flight review page at midnight is much stronger than general “holiday deals” search at lunchtime; and that changes everything.
Predictive Should Be Our Norm
We should stop utilizing past expressed intent as our reaction, and instead start predicting demand before expressed intent.
Use historical campaign reaction data in AI models to identify micro-triggers before the user mentally searches; use model behavior that looks at more than the purchase signal and includes product discovery, sharing, and prolonged engagement.
Creative as a Data Source
Creative performance as the signal itself is a major signal. For instance, which headlines stop the scroll?, which formats encourage return visits? These micro-interactions are fresh, real-time indicators about the receptiveness of the market and are more relevant to your goals than forgotten third-party intent tags, and often more actionable.
Closed-Loop Outcome Data
This shift is re-orienting the focus away from “this person is likely to convert” to “this audience has already proven to convert.”
What this statement implies is Putting CRM and sales data back into your targeting logic (eg. using past customer records who already purchased our product or service and find more people like them).
Focusing on platforms that support server-to-server integrations for cleaner attribution.
The Integration of Intent and intelligence
The future will be intent-aware, not intent-dependent. Intent is a starting point, not the endpoint.
Alone it’s noisy, slow, and not reliable (too many false positives). But, when layered with contextual relevance, predictive modeling, and creative led feedback loops, it gets sharper and more reliable.
Authored by Aditya Jangid, Managing Director, AdCounty Media India Ltd.
