As the November 5 voting date approaches, all attention is on the 2024 U.S. elections. Former President Donald Trump is currently leading the predictions, particularly in the seven crucial swing states, according to the latest poll from AtlasIntel.
Poll Results Show Trump in the Lead
The poll indicates that approximately 49% of respondents plan to vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. The Republicans hold a slight lead of 1.8% over their Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris. This survey was conducted over the first two days of November and involved nearly 2,500 likely voters across the U.S., with a majority being female.
Importance of Swing States
As the presidential election nears its conclusion, the focus shifts to swing states, which are vital for determining the outcome. Another survey specifically targeting these swing states shows that the Republican nominee is favored to win in all seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Trump’s Lead in Key States
- Arizona: Trump enjoys his largest lead here, with 51.9% of voters supporting him compared to Harris’s 45.1%.
- Nevada: In this state, 51.4% of voters back Trump, while 45.9% choose Harris.
- North Carolina: Trump leads with 50.4% compared to Harris’s 46.8%.
Understanding U.S. Electoral States
U.S. presidential elections are influenced by three types of states: Red States, Blue States, and Swing States. Red States are those that have consistently voted Republican since 1980, while Blue States have favored Democrats since 1992. These states are generally reliable in their electoral predictions.
In contrast, Swing States often see close competition between Republicans and Democrats, with victories often decided by very narrow margins. For example, in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden won Arizona by only 10,000 votes.
Harris’s Narrow Lead in Other Polls
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll published on October 29 indicates that Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over Donald Trump, with the Democrat receiving 44% and the Republican 43%. Notably, Harris has consistently led Trump in all Reuters/Ipsos polls of registered voters since she began her campaign in July, though her advantage has gradually diminished since late September.