As the 2024 U.S. presidential election campaign reaches its final stages, Republican nominee Donald Trump seems to have overtaken Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the polls. According to a recent Wall Street Journal survey, Trump holds a 2% advantage over Harris, with 47% of voters supporting him compared to 45% for Harris.
While Trump currently has the lead, the Wall Street Journal points out that this margin falls within the poll’s margin of error, indicating that the election could still swing in either direction. For months, Trump led President Joe Biden when Biden was the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party. However, Harris took over the ticket and initially revitalized the campaign, maintaining a lead over Trump until recent weeks, when her advantage began to diminish.
Recent forecasts provide a mixed picture of the election landscape. Decision Desk HQ-The Hill estimates that Trump has a 52% chance of winning, while Harris stands at 48%. The Economist gives Trump a 56% chance against Harris’s 46%. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll shows Trump at 50%, just ahead of Harris at 48%.
The Journal’s Aaron Zitner highlights a shift in public perception since August, indicating that Harris’s favorability ratings have turned negative among voters. In contrast, Trump’s ratings appear to have improved. The increase in negative advertising and the candidates’ performances seem to have impacted Harris’s once-positive image, particularly after she replaced Biden on the Democratic ticket.
In August, Kamala Harris enjoyed an equal balance of favorable and unfavorable views among voters. However, the latest poll reveals that her unfavorable ratings now exceed her favorable ones by 8%. Regarding their respective tenures, the poll indicates that voters have a 4-point positive rating for Trump and a 12-point negative rating for Harris.
Despite the shifting dynamics, the election remains unpredictable with numerous variables at play. For instance, while the Fox News poll shows Trump leading by 2% overall, it also indicates that Harris holds a 6% advantage in critical swing states that will ultimately determine the election outcome.
