There are a number of political and economic shifts underway in Canada that need to be better recognized against sometimes (the present, justifiable) feelings of doom and gloom about current Ottawa on Khalistan. Rather, I will demonstrate evidence and trends that it is rather Trudeau and his policies on Khalistan (and beyond) are more likely doomed by certain realities.
Furthermore and more specifically I contend that the new Canadian power centre has not only gone more westward in Canada, a Conservative Party (anti-Trudeau) stronghold, but has gone more to Asia, westward so-to-speak to geopolitical influencers, Asia based and most Asian immigrants and descendants in Canada, both more sceptical of Trudeau. This is not commercially or diplomatically beneficial to the present Ottawa government with its attitudes putting even the free trade agreement with India in jeopardy or, eventually compromised on getting a full beneficial outcome to Canada in particular. This negative trend may accelerate further at some point, with a few exceptions. It also could significantly undermine the Trudeau Liberal Party to stay in or even regain power after its likely loss in 2025 when the current governing Liberals, legally, must hold elections. With the current standing of Liberals under Trudeau at below 27 percent in popularity, there is growing evidence that this prime minister may not even stay on all the way to 2025. A well-placed Canadian Liberal senator, former chief of staff to Liberal Prime Minister, Jean Chretien has asked Trudeau to resign. This is no small development. So between now and 2025, Indians may see the backside to Trudeau, if not immediately following with the cancelling or significant modification of his implacable passivity to getting on with stemming Khalistan extremism.
There are other trends that may be diplomatically and economically of benefit to India and their diaspora in Canada, including those who join in with these shifts. And importantly, the Conservative Party overall is not only politically adhered to at the federal level by a large lead over its competitors. As well, most of faster growing western Canada with more entrepreneurs of all kinds of businesses are supportive of this party. And no coincidence, the Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre is from Alberta in western Canada. His leadership and being primed to lead Canada are likely good news for India as he promises, if in power, to have a much better relationship with India as compared to Justin Trudea’s hardcore, intemperate positions on Khalistan, supportive primarily from his large voter base in Toronto, Ontario. This large city in central Canada is known, not only largely as the political “epicentre” to woke-political correctness in Canada, but possibly the world. Trudeau Liberals are significantly backed up by privileged, mostly Anglophone or allied inherited elites for whom those who follow India have much sympathy for Trudeau and globalist attitudes towards Prime Minister Modi’s government. It is a government who they think is not liberal and post-modern enough and too pro-India.To put it in simple terms, more or less, they are agreeable to George Soros types in New York City, highly concentrated with neo-liberal globalists on Wall Street and the hegemony it is part of. One that would be largely happy to see the Modi, India first government crash out to their quislings in India. – and with the Trudeau government’s help/?
Turning back to another trend generally favourable to India. Now, if Poilievre becomes the Canadian PM what specific evidence indicates he would likely be much better for India than Trudeau. This is a reasonable question, as sometimes governments change but nothing else really changes. As I mentioned in another piece, there is just too much cheap rhetoric in so much politics one should be careful with one’s judgments about intentions as many talk big but do not deliver after elections/ This contrasts in India with the serious, pro-development Modi government. In pro-development, Mr. Modi should have a friend with Mr. Poilievre who can do the maths with New Delhi to figure out that a professional, mutually positive relationship with India is good for Canada and its economics and job growth—and obviously, for India, too. But do not simply trust Conservative logic, but listen to what that party leader says with sincerity and consistency. On this, the Independent, a main and respected UK broadsheet additionally added comments by Canada’s likely new prime minister in waiting,” Justin Trudeau is considered a laughing stock in India – the world’s biggest democracy.” By the same major media source, it also reported, “He (Poilievre) put the blame on Mr. Trudeau, and said he was ‘incompetent and unprofessional’ and to restore a ‘professional relationship’ with India if his party came to power.”
Back to western Canada. Since a large part of the Indo-Canadian population is centred there and overall better shares conservative values, this means it could act as a serious voting force, especially to undermine the governing Liberals and their minority NDP (pro Khalistan separatist sympathetic, led) ) which have seats in the Vancouver area. In fact, many of the 5.1 percent of the population in Canada that is of India descent (Wikipedia) are alarmed with the impact of Trudeau Liberal policies, live out West. That largely pro Conservative voting group is highly disproportionately centred in British Columbia, firstly and to a lesser degree Alberta. Vancouver is the main recipient of the Asian presence ( immigration, investment) along with booming and oil rich Alberta and much of the rest of the resource rich West. Net conclusion, most of the western Asian immigrant community combined with and overlapping Western Canadian Conservative leadership and resources might offset Trudeau’s residual urban supporters in urban Toronto that seem to be decreasing by the day.
So, it is likely also that this continued shifting of the political and economic centre of of gravity in Canada, along with the multipolar developments in the external world, so important to Canadian investment and trade will score a figurative multi-centuries run for India and its diaspora, in many ways at least in a few years. Can the Liberal Party establishment not see it? Sure, they can. And, so my best bet is what they call the Liberals as the “governing political party”, as it has been in power much more than the Conservatives, and are well-preparing for a change in leadership. But I could be wrong on shifts moving towards better attitudes and policy in Canada on Khalistan. That is because the North American security establishment, as well as the Five-Eyes, might put any government led by Poilievre or Trudeau’s successor in knots to keep the “ugly” status quo of tensions. These would be ones to try to keep India,”off-balance” given the quick rise of Modi-led India. We shall see if Indians will rally around to legitimately support the necessary changes needed in Canadian foreign policy. A Modi government, reelected, would be the best one of character to stand up for India against significant forces that might run over both countries, if allowed.
Peter Dash writes on geopolitics extensively. He resides in the Global South.