Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who rose to power promising “sunny ways,” is now navigating his most challenging political landscape as he seeks a rare fourth term. Facing internal dissent from his own party, Trudeau is under pressure as some Liberal MPs demand his resignation, fearing his unpopularity could lead to a severe electoral defeat.
Nearly two dozen backbench Liberal MPs signed a letter last week urging Trudeau to step down, separate from a petition calling for a secret ballot vote on his leadership. Despite this, Trudeau remains steadfast, asserting that he has the support of the majority of the 153 Liberal Party members in the House of Commons. He stated that any necessary discussions regarding the party’s future would occur with him at the helm.
Political analysts note that the unrest within the party has intensified in recent months, marking a significant challenge to Trudeau’s leadership. Scott Reid, a political adviser, highlighted that while some members openly express discontent, many others may share similar feelings but lack the courage to voice them.
Historically, Canadian prime ministers rarely step down voluntarily; they typically resign after electoral defeats or when all other options are exhausted. There is currently no clear successor to Trudeau. While former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has hinted at an interest in leadership, and other potential candidates like Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc possess valuable credentials, none have publicly declared their intentions.
As the Liberals face significant public dissatisfaction—polls show them trailing nearly 20 points behind the opposition Conservatives—analysts believe the party’s struggles stem from long-term dissatisfaction with Trudeau himself. “He is a lightning rod for discontent across the country,” Reid remarked, noting Trudeau’s apparent refusal to signal any changes to the status quo.
Furthermore, the Liberals are contending with external pressures from the Bloc Québécois, which has threatened to bring down Trudeau’s minority government unless certain legislation is passed. As political tension rises and the risk of an election looms, Trudeau’s path to securing a fourth term appears increasingly daunting, with historical precedents suggesting such a feat is challenging.
Éric Grenier, a political analyst, emphasized the difficulty of attempting to win a fourth consecutive term, pointing out that the last leader to achieve this was Wilfred Laurier in 1908. “If you only knew that Trudeau was trying for a fourth term, you’d think it would be an uphill battle from the start,” Grenier stated.