If it were not apparent to those still enamoured of India’s decades old “bond” with Russia, Vladimir Putin’s latest statements should make it obvious to them that Russia and China mean business, together—which is not exactly good news for India. A few days ago, Russian President Putin made it clear that although his country did not have a military alliance with China, “our relationship has reached such a level of trust and cooperation that it is not necessary, but certainly imaginable, theoretically”. Putin’s statements, made at a video conference, gave interesting insights into Russia’s deepening commercial, military and even strategic ties with China. Putin mentioned “regular joint military exercises” with China and “high level of cooperation in the defence industry”, which included “sharing of technologies”. He talked about how “cooperation between Russia and China is boosting the defence potential of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army”. He said that he and his “friend”—”and I have every reason to call him a friend”—Xi Jinping, “continuously consult each other on what and how things need to be done”. He went on to elaborate how they were working together on aviation and nuclear engineering, apart from strengthening trade ties, worth over $111 billion. And most significantly, Putin raised the topic of Indo-Pacific, by saying, “we have to confront new threats. For example, the intention stated by our American partners to possibly deploy medium- and short-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region.” The Russian President then added, “We undoubtedly will have to take reciprocal steps.” In other words, Cold War 2.0 just got colder, with battle lines clearly drawn, and to think that at least a section of the foreign policy establishment in New Delhi is still dreaming of bringing Russia into the Indo-Pacific construct—a construct whose sole aim is to build an anti China front to contain its aggression!
A bigger concern for India should be its armed forces’ deep dependence on defence platforms from Russia, including their maintenance. Apart from the fact that we are still doing rapid purchases of defence equipment from Russia when facing a threat from China. Perhaps it is time India wondered if Russia sharing technology with China may end up compromising India’s interests—for example in the case of S-400, which Russia has sold to both countries. Perhaps it is also time to pre-empt a situation where in future China blocks Russia from sending to India critical parts needed for the maintenance of defence systems Moscow has sold to New Delhi. If we operate under the belief that “Russia will not let us down” then we are in serious trouble. There is no place for emotionalism in statecraft. “Historic” ties with Russia and our loyalty to Moscow for giving us technology that the West did not want us to give in the past, have made us hang on to the coattails of Russia for decades, even though it was the clear loser of Cold War 1.0 and currently is half of India’s economic size. It is time to wake up from that daydream and realise that a Putin shunned by the West, has no option but to look towards “iron brother” China. Additionally, both countries have been wanting to carve out a world order not led by the US or the West—in fact that is the primary purpose of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which both India and Russia are members and whose meetings India was attending in Moscow very recently, in spite of the Ladakh standoff. It serves Chinese purpose to use Russia to hold India back in a nowhere land—not choosing a side in an increasingly US vs China bipolar world, a country without an ally at a time when only a united world can stand up to a malevolent power such as China.
Now that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper are visiting New Delhi for the 2+2 meeting, and signing the BECA, deepening India-US military cooperation, it is hoped that Indo-Pacific too will feature in the discussions and baby steps will be taken towards the formalization of the Quad, for that is the primary way to contain China. It’s time to choose a side—in our interest. Multilateralism, at best, is an excuse to continue to strike defence deals with Russia, when diversification and Aatmanirbharata should be our mantra. It’s time to come out of our Russian reverie.