The people of Taiwan have spoken, and how—by handing the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) a third consecutive term to rule their nation. The DPP is pro-independence from China, much to Beijing’s unhappiness. China, which claims Taiwan as Chinese territory, had warned Taiwan’s voters that if DPP returned to power the chances of a conflict between the two countries would increase. In other words, China—which has shifted from a “peaceful reunification” of Taiwan, to, “use of force” to bring Taiwan to its fold—will launch a military attack against the island nation if it elects DPP. China anyway has been exerting pressure on Taiwan by using military aircraft to violate Taiwan’s airspace, apart from carrying out military exercises encircling the country, including live fire drills, warship deployments, and ballistic missile launches. Plus, there have been efforts to arm-twist Taiwan through threats of removing trade concessions that Beijing gives to Taipei.
Echoing Beijing, Taiwan’s pro-China party and main opposition, Kuomintang (KMT), had asked Taiwanese voters to choose between war and peace, saying that the KMT stood for peace. But in spite of the shadow of war hanging over them, the people of Taiwan stood up to China’s Communist Party bullies and exercised their sovereign right to choose their own government. The DPP’s victory is reaffirmation of the fact that the majority of Taiwanese people consider themselves to be independent and do not have any intentions of merging with China. That KMT, Taiwan’s “original” ruling party, is finding it difficult to return to power for a long time, proves how deep-seated the sentiments of independence are amongst the Taiwanese. In fact, KMT too has been shifting from its earlier stance of outright unification to making peace with China, to stay electorally relevant.
There were some worries that the rise of a third party, Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), would tilt the verdict in favour of KMT because of a split in DPP’s vote share. In spite of that, DPP’s Presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te won 40% of the votes, to KMT’s 33.5%. Interestingly, the third party, TPP, which has similar pro-independence beliefs as the DPP, won 26.46% of the votes.
This serves as an important message to China—that no amount of coercion can subvert people’s will. That except for an outright military invasion, China can do nothing to bring Taiwan to its fold, “peacefully”. However, a military invasion is a risky proposition, for it may result in a direct war with the United States, as Washington is treaty bound to come to Taiwan’s protection, if China invades the island. Although this doesn’t rule out any Chinese invasion, there is no doubt that the results are a setback for China.
The verdict can also be seen in the context of the rising unpopularity of China in countries it wants to turn into its vassal states. At many places, be it in Africa or in the Pacific Islands, a pushback to the Chinese is taking place. Closer home to India, Nepal took a stridently anti-India stance during the pro-China K.P. Oli’s tenure as Prime Minister. Oli went to the extent of starting a border dispute with India in the Lipulekh-Kalapani area and claiming that the real Ayodhya was in Nepal and not in India. At the time the buzz was that the Oli government was being run from the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu. An unpopular Prime Minister, Oli’s inglorious exit after losing a trust vote, brought Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” as Prime Minister, who has since restored the balance in India-Nepal relations.
Take the example of Maldives, where Mohamed Muizzu became President in November 2023, on the back of a China-sponsored “India Out” campaign. Ever since, Muizzu has been on an overdrive to destroy his country’s relations with India, even as he runs to Beijing to fall at the feet of Xi Jinping. His anti-India rhetoric has had a direct impact on Maldives’ main industry, tourism, as the Maldivian archipelago faces a backlash from Indian tourists, who comprise 11% of the total tourist footfall in that country. And now, in less than two months of coming to power, last week, Muizzu’s party, People’s National Congress lost the mayoral election in capital Male to the pro-India opposition Maldivian Democratic Party by a convincing margin. Given that Muizzu was the mayor of Male before he became President defeating Maldivian Democratic Party’s Mohammad Solih, the importance of this result cannot be ignored. The question is: Has the backlash to Muizzu already started? For how long China’s man in Maldives, Muizzu, hold the fort as he makes his policies more China-friendly? The people will speak, sooner or later.
As for India, the Taiwan result is a message that New Delhi needs to go public with its relations with Taipei. The Taiwanese did not care what China’s reaction would be to the electoral verdict. China does not care for India’s sentiments when it comes to the status of Arunachal Pradesh or Jammu and Kashmir. If China cannot adhere to the One India principle, why should India stay bound to the One China policy, which says Taiwan is a part of China? The people of Taiwan have shown that they are fearless. The least that India can do is to congratulate them for it.