Given the way the opposition is at loggerheads with each other, it’s difficult to figure out which way the 2024 is headed except for the Modi way. It has been said that the only one who can defeat Narendra Modi is Modi himself and frankly the only factor against this government is its own anti-incumbency. There is widespread discontent against the rising prices and lack of jobs, there is an unstated fear at the rise of polarization and then there is the continuing presence of Covid in our lives. There is no argument that no party wins elections better than the BJP under Modi. But when it comes to governance, there are some disquieting question marks.
This leads us to the Opposition which should have been able to hammer the government on its Covid handling, Chinese invasion and economic policies. But apart from some tweets by Rahul Gandhi, some pockets of rebellion by Mamta Bannerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, and the Thackerays, the Opposition has done little else. Instead, they are busy fighting each other to decide who is best placed to lead the Opposition. A battle that takes the media (and public) attention away from the real issues.
In this case, realistically speaking, on the eve of the Uttar Pradesh polls – and around the midpoint of this government— there are two options. One is that the BJP under Modi returns in 2024 with some of its numbers chipped away, but still remains the single largest party crossing 272. And the other is that the BJP retains its place as the single largest party getting 250 plus but does not cross 272. In that case, the BJP will need some allies to prop it. There are those who speculate that if the BJP does not get a majority in 2024 then Modi will not be the PM face but somehow, I doubt that. Given his current ratings which includes his equation with the RSS there is all likelihood of him continuing. And after the initial murmurs he will find the allies.
Then comes my question: Would the second scenario be such a bad thing for India? A restrained BJP under PM Modi? Will we see shades of the Vajpayee era once again? While I very much doubt the latter, a BJP government that is kept under check by the numerical pressure of its allies may work for India, and perhaps better than a rag tail coalition propped up by the Congress under the leadership of a regional chieftain (and it won’t be Mamta, the Congress will ensure that). The only reason I say this is that the Congress as an outside support does not offer stability— as HD Deve Gowda, Chandrasekhar and IK Gujral. And stable governance is a critical component of any good governance paradigm.