The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues with shifting dynamics on various fronts. The current situation, territorial adjustments, international intervention, and constant diplomacy have been outlined in this explainer.

Territorial Control and Military Operations

Russia still controls around 18.6% of the Ukrainian landmass, including Crimea and major tracts of four other provinces. Remarkably, Ukrainian troops have begun cross-border attacks into Russia’s Belgorod province, gaining about 13 square kilometers at Demidovka. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy authenticated that such operations seek to reduce pressure on Ukraine’s north-eastern Sumy and Kharkiv regions threatened by projected Russian assaults.

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To this end, Russian forces have upped attempts to restore command over contested spaces. Recently, Russia reportedly nears restoring control over its west Kursk province following advances which ejected one of Ukraine’s remaining outposts in the territory.

International Involvement and Foreign Fighters

A major news item is the reported detention of two Chinese nationals by Ukrainian troops in the Donetsk province, reportedly fighting with Russian forces. President Zelenskyy said that intelligence indicates that other Chinese nationals might be engaged in the conflict on Russia’s side. This is a cause of concern regarding China’s involvement and its declared neutrality in the conflict. Ukraine has called China’s chargé d’affaires for an explanation.

Diplomatic Efforts and Ceasefire Negotiations

Diplomatic attempts at negotiating a ceasefire have experienced yo-yoing momentum. Market opinions, including those of Goldman Sachs, have put the odds at 70% in favor of a peace agreement, up from earlier evaluations. This belief is shared with the assertion by US President Donald Trump to bring an end to the war, which he calls a proxy war involving the US and Russia. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he will support a US-suggested ceasefire conditionally, demanding that major issues be settled beforehand. President Zelenskyy has dismissed Putin’s conditions as unrealistic, accusing Russia of wanting to extend the war.  The Kremlin has also stated that issues around the suggested ceasefire are still unclear, implying obstacles in the negotiation process.

Humanitarian Impact

The humanitarian cost is still dire. A recent Russian missile attack in Kryvyi Rih killed 20 individuals, including nine children, the most confirmed child fatalities in one strike since 2022. The United Nations has requested more access to Russian-controlled territory to confirm and respond to such incidents.

What’s Next?

With frontlines in constant flux, peace negotiations in doubt, and new global players emerging in unforeseen manners, the war is still unstable. While there is guarded hope in some quarters for a diplomatic solution, both military escalation and political brinksmanship still characterize the situation on the ground.

As 2025 goes on, the war is a significant test of global diplomacy, NATO cohesion, and post-Cold War assumption-driven global order. It will be dependent mainly on geopolitical will, the dynamics of the battlefield, and strategic concessions to be determined if this year yields peace or continued bloodshed.