It was just another calm Friday morning on Taiwan’s frontline island of Kinmen, a stone’s throw from China. Suddenly, an air raid siren shattered the quiet. Lights flicked off inside government offices, people dived under desks, and others fled to underground shelters. At a nearby hospital, doctors rushed to treat bleeding casualties staggering in from the streets.
But the blood wasn’t real. The “victims” were volunteer actors, their wounds painted on. This was all part of a sprawling nationwide civil defence drill – Taiwan’s way of rehearsing for the unthinkable: a Chinese invasion.
Why Taiwan Believes Practice Could Prevent War
China has long vowed to “reunify” with Taiwan, and has never ruled out the use of force. While Beijing insists it prefers “peaceful reunification,” Washington warns China may have the military capability to invade by 2027.
President William Lai, elected last year, has framed the drills as part of a broader doctrine: “By preparing for war, we are avoiding war.” His government has launched the island’s most ambitious military reforms in decades, including a proposed 23% defence budget increase to $31 billion next year – and a pledge to push spending to 5% of GDP by 2030.
The challenge is not only building up Taiwan’s defences, but also convincing its people that the threat is urgent. A May survey found 65% of Taiwanese believe China is unlikely to invade within five years.
Civil Defence Goes Realistic – Even With Fake Casualties
Taiwan is now staging larger and more intense civilian drills than ever. Last month’s Urban Resilience Exercise unfolded across every major city.
Air raid sirens forced residents indoors. Businesses shut down, trains halted, and air traffic was briefly frozen. In Taipei, fire crews practised rappelling down damaged high-rises, while paramedics triaged “injured” evacuees under tents in car parks. Fake blood, volunteer victims, and mock missile strikes added realism, testing emergency teams under battlefield-like pressure.
For supporters, such drills are a sobering reminder of Taiwan’s vulnerability. “Look at how China keeps surrounding us,” said Stanley Wei, an office worker in Taipei. “We need to increase our defence, just in case.”
Others remain skeptical. On Kinmen, where memories of shelling in the 1950s linger, many residents today see China less as an enemy and more as a source of tourism income. “We are all one family. Why would they hurt us?” asked shopkeeper Yang Peiling.
Taiwan’s Soldiers Are Training Harder Too
Alongside civilians, the military is also retooling. Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang war games have shifted away from scripted exercises toward unscripted, real-world simulations.
This year’s drills were the longest and largest in history:
- 22,000 reservists called up – 50% more than last year.
- Urban warfare scenarios staged across highways, metro lines, and city suburbs.
- Soldiers loaded missiles onto helicopters in riverside parks.
- Schools doubled as repair stations for tanks.
Taiwan has also lengthened mandatory conscription and boosted military pay and benefits to shake off its “strawberry soldier” reputation – a nickname once used for allegedly soft recruits.
Preparedness or Provocation?
Taiwanese society is split on whether such militarisation is wise. Supporters argue the Ukraine war proved that complacency can be fatal. “Before Ukraine, I didn’t care,” said IT worker Ray Yang. “Now I believe it could happen here.”
Others see it as unnecessary provocation. “As long as you don’t say independence, China won’t act,” said Ms. Chen, a Kinmen shop assistant. Critics also accuse the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of fearmongering to consolidate power.
Still, over half of Taiwanese now support increased defence spending – and even more back US arms purchases.
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The Bigger Picture
Analysts say the drills serve two purposes: to genuinely prepare civilians and soldiers for crisis, but also to signal resilience to Beijing and reassure allies like the US.
Shen Ming-shih, a defence expert, notes that while Xi Jinping has ambitions for Taiwan, China’s military still lags behind the US. Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance also makes it vital to the global economy, potentially drawing international support in a crisis.
Yet, as political scientist Wen-ti Sung points out, decades of threats have made some Taiwanese numb. “You can’t take every warning seriously without going insane,” he says.
Whether China is bluffing or biding its time, Taiwan’s strategy is clear: act out every possible nightmare scenario, even if it means fake blood on hospital floors and missile drills in city parks. It’s better to be ready than sorry.
