Nearly two years after Sweden formally applied to join NATO, its membership now hinges on convincing one country — Viktor Orbán’s Hungary — to formally ratify its bid to join the military alliance.
Hungary’s nationalist government has delayed holding a vote on Sweden’s membership for more than 18 months, creating tension with Stockholm and drawing mounting pressure from its allies to finally move forward on ratification. Yet Orbán’s party this week announced it will vote on ratifying Sweden’s NATO bid on Monday, suggesting the delays — and the diplomatic tensions — could be drawing to a close.
While neither Hungarian nor Swedish officials have specified what led to Hungary dropping its objections, there are indications that the two countries are closing in on an agreement for Hungary to acquire Swedish-built military equipment.
Jens Wenzel, a Sweden-based defense analyst with Nordic Defence Analysis, a consultancy, said that Hungary’s delays in ratifying Sweden’s NATO bid has in part been a form of pressure on Stockholm “to come up with some kind of needed equipment acquisition deals” for the Hungarian military.
“Sweden has a very strong defense industry, and there is probably an interest from Hungary to acquire some of that defense material,” he said. “Viktor Orbán wants to gain the maximum out of utilising this delay just before we close the (ratification) deal on Monday, so deals probably could be struck with Sweden in terms of arms supplies.”
All of NATO’s 31 other member countries have lent their support to Sweden’s membership, and speculation on the reasons for Hungary’s enduring resistance has abounded.
Orbán says his government is in favour of bringing Sweden into NATO, but that lawmakers in the prime minister’s governing Fidesz party remain unconvinced — offended by “blatant lies” from some Swedish politicians that he says have excoriated the quality of Hungary’s democracy.
As for specific demands from Orbán’s government on how Sweden should mend the hurt feelings, few have been forthcoming. But Wenzel, the defense analyst, said there is interest in Hungary in acquiring, among other equipment, Swedish-built Gripen fighter jets.