The outcome of the Rajya Sabha elections in Himachal Pradesh has brought into open a factional war within the State Congress. Although Chief Minister Sukhwinder Singh Suku has got a reprieve, yet the crisis seems to be far from over, with Pratibha Singh, the PCC Chief, and wife of the Late Virbhadra Singh, sending confusing signals to the party High Command. The three central observers who were camping in Shimla have ruled out any change in the leadership as of now, but several elements within the organisation are lobbying hard for the change of Chief Minister. Pratibha Singh in a TV interview on Thursday indicated that there was uncertainty, and when asked if she was willing to go towards the BJP, she replied that this was not on her mind at present. The Rajya Sabha polls produced a shock result for the Congress when Harsh Mahajan, its former leader, now with the BJP, won through a draw of lots, defeating Abhishek Singhvi following cross voting by six Congress legislators. The MLAs, who have now been expelled from the Assembly, for defying the whip directing them to be present for the budget passage, have moved the High Court. However, it is important to understand the dynamics of the politics which is on in the Hill State which sends four MPs to the Lok Sabha. The BJP had been wishing to destabilise the state government for a long time, and the opportunity came when the Congress declared Singhvi, an outsider as its nominee. In any case, to have outsiders in the states ruled by the Congress on the eve of the Parliamentary polls was an unwise decision but since Singhvi was the official nominee, he became a victim of the factional fight. The BJP launched Operation Lotus and brought in Harsh Mahajan as its candidate knowing very well, that it did not have the numbers.
The suspicion was that the BJP initiative was prompted by dissident Congress legislators and perhaps Pratbiha Singh and her son, Vikramaditya Singh, who is a minister in the present government. The charge against Suku was that he had become too arrogant and was unwilling to listen to his party MLAs and ministers. However, in the Rajya Sabha election, the State PCC president cannot absolve herself of the responsibility of getting the official nominee elected. However, she and her supporters found the timing perfect for shifting all the blame for the defeat on Suku.
The Suku-Virbhadra family feud is not new and dates back to the time when Virbhadra Singh was alive and the Chief Minister. Suku was always in the opposing camp but the party had entrusted him with the task of running the PCC at that time. What changed after the Congress returned to power was that the Virbhadra group which was used to having its way, suddenly found itself marginalised. It is significant that even before Suku was chosen to be the CM by the High Command, Pratibha Singh had convened a meeting of party MLAs where only 13 or 14 turned up, thereby sending a signal that the majority did not support her. When Singhvi lost the polls, and being consciousness of his proximity to the Gandhis, her camp contributed in attempts to destablise the state government.
Vikramaditya Singh added fuel to the fire by announcing his resignation, which was uncalled for. Instead of attacking the Chief Minister, his primary task as a Congressman should have been to secure the government, which the BJP was trying to destabilise. The High Command sent three seasoned central observers who were able to read the situation very well. They recognised the fact that all was not well, and a section of MLAs was unhappy with Suku. Simultaneously they knew that changing the CM would send wrong signals that would help the BJP’s conspiracy to dislodge the Congress from the State on the eve of the polls. Therefore, the High Command had no option but to back the CM, at least till the Lok Sabha elections and thereafter take any appropriate decision. Suku too has apparently realised that he needed to be more inclusive in his approach in the future and had to accommodate those who had views contrary to his own. This was the only manner in which he could serve as the CM for full five years. On the BJP front, Harsha Mahajan’s victory may have been a big booster but his re-emergence on the political scene may not be very good news for many existing State leaders nursing ambitions.
Harsh is a seasoned player, well versed with power politics and knows how to make a place for himself in the party hierarchy. The uncertainty which Pratibha Singh spoke about, is regarding her own future moves and those of her faction. She could be open to shifting her loyalties as was evident in her interview. The Congress also has to deal with a hypothetical situation of what would Suku do, if he is replaced at this juncture. Therefore the safe way forward is to maintain a status quo, under the shadow of the unknown. Much would depend on the outcome of the parliamentary polls. The Congress would probably be fielding Pratibha Singh from the Mandi constituency which she represents. The party shall also have to take a view on who all would contest on the six MLA seats that have fallen vacant unless the Speaker’s decision is stayed by the Court. The unfortunate aspect of the cross voting in the Rajya Sabha polls is that Himachal too has also joined the states which have the dubious distinction of MLAs switching loyalties. The Congress has to remain vigilant if it wishes its government to last the full term.
