ANALYSING BIHAR ELECTIONS 2020: EXIT POLLS VS PEOPLE’S VERDICT

NEW DELHI: The third phase of voting in the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly ended on 7 November. Counting for votes began on 10 November and the Janata Dal (United) and BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) crossed the majority mark of 122 as the counting stretched beyond midnight. All the exit polls had predicted a tough competition by the principal opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Many had also predicted that the LJP, led by Chirag Paswan, could prove to be a key player in the case of a hung assembly. The RJD emerged as the single party with the highest vote share (23.11%), while the LJP only managed to secure one seat out of the 134 it contested.

Due to the alliance matrix of the contesting parties, the shifting allegiances of leaders, and an uncertain political atmosphere with critical issues at helm, such as the mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic and record high rates of unemployment plaguing the state, polling agencies were finding it tricky to declare a winner.

Let’s dive into the various exit polling figures and have a look to see whether any of the polling agencies came close to predicting the real outcome.

WHAT DID THE EXIT POLLS SAY?

In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP and JD(U)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured 125 seats, while the RJD, INC, CPI, CPI(ML) and CPM combined (Grand Alliance or Mahagathbandhan) got 110 seats and the AIMIM 5 seats. LJP and BSP secured one seat each and an independent candidate got one seat. Here are the results of some of the leading exit polls of the Bihar Assembly elections. (Images to the right) At the outset, all the exit polls predicted an RJD-led victory of the Mahagathbandhan. The India Today-My Axis India poll and News 18-Today’s Chanakya poll predicted a huge victory for the Mahagathbandhan, claiming respectively that they would win 139-161 seats and 108 seats.

On the other hand, the Times Now-Team CVoter poll gave a more accurate prediction of 116 seats for the NDA and 120 for the Mahagathbandhan.

WHAT DID POLLSTERS FAIL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT?

On the outset, all the exit polls predicted an RJD led victory of the Grand Alliance, with varying degrees. The India Today-My Axis India poll and News 18- Today’s Chanakya poll predicted a huge victory for the grand alliance, with 139-161 seats and 108 seats respectively. On the other hand, the Times Now- Team CVoter poll predicted a more accurate view of the real results with a prediction of 116 for the NDA and 120 for the Mahagathbandhan. The question that now arises is what did the pollsters fail to take into account? There are several complexities about the political landscape in Bihar that unfolded including the choices of Muslim voters, surprise positive show by the AIMIM and the underperformance of the Congress that impaired the ability of the exit polls to predict a winner accurately. Additionally, many pollsters also may not have taken into account the ability of LJP to play spoilsport to both the NDA as well as the Mahagathbandhan in several constituencies. While exit polls have a scientific methodology in place, which has been developed over the years, due to the complex multi-party system present in India, and the changing alliances between parties, often it is extremely difficult to accurately incorporate the quantitative impact of these factors to predict results.