The spectre of a hung assembly in Punjab appears to be worrying security analysts as they fear that such a situation could lead to instability in the border state which would not be a good sign for India. If no party is able to secure a majority of its own, it would be a daunting task for the single largest party to get other players to support it. If a government is formed through defections and not by mutual consent of at least two big parties, it would be construed as tinkering with the mandate. The inability to have an elected government may result in the imposition of the President’s rule which would imply that the BJP which controls the Centre would administer Punjab. In the possibilities that would follow the outcome, the Union government would first and foremost have to ensure that militancy does not return to the State which would assist anti-national forces both within and outside Punjab. With Kashmir going through a transition period, it would be a matter of immense concern, if a similar situation crops up in this region. In the event of no party getting a majority and thus not being able to form the government, the Centre must act in a politically correct manner; if President’s rule is a necessity, it should be for a brief period and not a prolonged one enabling the Election Commission to have a repoll within a period of six months.
Denial of a democratic government is not what Punjab, in particular, can afford to see in the present context with separatists funded by overseas ultras and the intelligence outfits of Pakistan, waiting to take advantage of the situation. It has become extremely difficult to correctly assess the polling because of multi-cornered contests which would throw up winners by slender margins. There have been reports that the Aam Aadmi Party which was leading all others in opinion polls, is actually not in a very sound position. The RSS in some areas reportedly encouraged its cadres to support the Akalis or the Congress, if it would help in defeating the AAP nominees. This reading by some in the Punjab media may not be accurate but is certainly adding to the prevalent confusion. The Satta Bazar is very active and has its own line up for this poll. However, the Satta market does not work on the principle of determining the winners but on how more money can be made by those who run it. Therefore, to depend on its findings is both dangerous and dubious. The AAP believes that it is going to be the dominant player but the Congress too has been exuding the same confidence.
Chief Minister, Charanjit Singh Channi has been telling his seniors that the Congress was set to cross the 55 mark and may ultimately form the government. This would depend largely on how the Akalis have fared. If they have been able to increase their vote share, they would be spoilers for the others. One more notable thing about this election is that it would lead to several by-elections. Sukhbir Badal, who is a Lok Sabha MP from Ferozepur is contesting from the Jalalabad seat. He shall have to either give up his Parliament seat or the Assembly seat after the results.
Channi is fighting from Chamkaur Saheb and Bhadaur. He too shall have to resign from one of the seats, if he is victorious in both. Bhagwant Mann is a sitting MP from Sangrur but is contesting from Dhuri. He shall have to choose between the Assembly and Parliament. Captain Amarinder Singh and Parkash Singh Badal are also contesting the Assembly polls. If their parties do not come to power, it is unlikely that they may continue to be ordinary members of the Assembly. The excitement of the Punjab contest is far from over. It has consequences for all the parties.