When confronted with overwhelming proof to the contrary, why do people continue to believe conspiracy theories? A new study from Cornell University suggests a surprising answer: arrogance. Findings suggest that individuals who embrace conspiracy theories are frequently marked by extreme overconfidence in their personal judgments.
The research gains relevance from recent events, such as the failed prediction of “The Rapture” on September 23, 2025. According to a South African pastor, several believers sold their possessions in anticipation of Jesus’ return on that day. When the day passed uneventfully, it highlighted a persistent question: what drives people to hold such unshakable faith in unproven ideas?
Study author Gordon Pennycook noted to PsyPost, “One of the things that seems to distinguish – at least some – conspiracy theorists is not just that their beliefs seem to be based on poor evidence, but also that they appear so confident in their beliefs.” This observation formed the basis for the investigation.
How Did the Scientists Study This Link?
The researchers used data from eight different studies with 4,181 people in the US to better understand the psychology of conspiracy beliefs. The procedure was systematic:
Cognitive Tasks: Participants completed various cognitive exercises.
Self-Assessment: They were then asked to rate how well they believed they had performed on these tasks. Their “overconfidence score” was the difference between their self-rated confidence and their actual performance.
Measuring Belief: Lastly, researchers measured the degree to which each participant agreed with popular conspiracy theories, such as the notion that vaccines are a part of a government conspiracy or that the moon landing
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What Were the Key Findings of the Study?
Two noteworthy trends emerged from the findings, which were published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin:
The Overconfidence Link: There was a strong correlation between high overconfidence scores and a strong belief in extreme conspiracy theories. People who were most overconfident in their own abilities were also the most likely to believe in conspiracies.
The “False Consensus” Effect: While only 12% of participants actually believed in the conspiracy theories, those who did exhibited a dramatic “false consensus.” They made the mistake of estimating that 90% of people agreed with them. This misperception was strongest among the most overconfident believers.
Dr. Pennycook explained this as a potential vicious cycle: “The tendency to be overconfident in general may increase the chances that someone falls down the rabbit hole, so to speak, and believes conspiracies.”
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Why Are Conspiracy Theories So Appealing?
Conspiracy theories gain traction by offering gripping stories that question official narratives, promise hidden knowledge, and simplify complex events.” scenario, making them intellectually seductive despite a lack of credible evidence. These beliefs satisfy a need for structure and significance, ranging from the notion that the Titanic’s sinking was an insurance fraud to numerous apocalyptic predictions.
Disclaimer: This information is based on inputs from news agency reports. TDG does not independently confirm the information provided by the relevant sources.
