The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) founder and national President Sharad Pawar had tendered his resignation from the post of national President of the party on 3rd May, 2023. He made this sensational and shocking announcement at the launch of the second edition of his autobiography in Marathi “Lok Majhe Sangati” which means “People are with me”. The said event was held at the Yashwantrao B Chavan Centre in Mumbai as it is considered as a fortress of Pawar and the NCP. This unexpected announcement created huge outrage within the party, with top leaders to party workers vehemently opposing Pawar’s decision. The scene at Yashwantrao B Chavan Centre had become extremely emotional. The NCP’s Maharashtra State Party President Jayant Patil and MLA Jitendra Awhad broke down. Senior leaders like Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal refused to accept his decision. Later, today, the party leadership unanimously rejected the resignation and appealed Pawar to take charge of the party.
There are various theories about the same. To begin with, Pawar is an astute politician. In his more than 50 years long career in politics, he has played his cards close to his sleeve like an expert poker player. Nobody has been able to predict his moves. This time again, it has come true. There were rumours of Pawar’s grandnephew Rohit Pawar taking over the party. The speculations were rife that this move was to secure the position and future of his daughter Supriya Sule.
One of the theories floating in the political and media circles was that Pawar has made this calculated move to checkmate his nephew Ajit Pawar. Lately, Maharashtra politics was filled with speculations of Ajit Pawar working on switching over to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This was similar to the coup d’etat by Eknath Shinde that broke the Shiv Sena. By resigning and creating an emotional scene in the party and its electorate in Western Maharashtra, Senior Pawar has succeeded in holding his party together and alleviate the possibility of any rebellion by his nephew and impending split in the party. This also helped Senior Pawar in ensuring that his nephew becomes irrelevant and useless for the BJP till 2024. One other theory floating in the political circles is that if Senior Pawar succeeds in controlling his nephew till 2024, he will be able to tame Junior Pawar. This will cement the position and safety of Supriya Sule in the party.
Other theory said that this move is done with an eye on forthcoming 2024 elections. Some political analysts believe that this emotional melodrama is a repeat of what he did in 2019. Then, Pawar made a statement that he will be summoned by the Enforcement Directorate. This riled up the emotions of the people and the capital i.e. Mumbai was on a boil for a few days. Later he delivered a speech during his election rally whilst in heavy rains. This again created an emotional scene as it was a successful appeal to the electorate. As 2024 General Elections come near, Pawar will require some more emotional triggers to appeal the voters. It is believed that this resignation is one of those emotive appeals.
Lastly, the other theory is that Pawar has also assessed his importance in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and his influence over his alliance partners like the Indian National Congress and the Shiv Sena (UBT). It is understood that a couple of top Shiv Sena leaders close to Uddhav Thackarey had rushed to Pawar’s residence – Silver Oak. This is an evidence of the importance and influence of Pawar on the Shiv Sena (UBT) and its leader Uddhav Thackarey. Political circles were rife with speculations that Pawar took three days to reconsider his decision only to analyse the impact on alliance partners.
Now Pawar’s resignation has been rejected and he has decided to reconsider the decision. This move is believed as a kind of consent of Pawar to continue as the Party Chief. This move again is believed to have a couple of implications. One of the implications is that he has succeeded in showing the political parties in the state, especially the Shiv Sena (UBT) how to quell internal rebellions that threat the existence of the party. It is believed that Pawar may have succeeded in holding party together till he is around and ensuring that Ajit Pawar doesn’t break the party. However, there is a section that has doubts about the continuity of the NCP as a single unified party till 2024. This section believes that there is a possibility of Ajit Pawar moving away with his group of supporters, albeit with tacit approval of Sharad Pawar. They believe that this could ensure Sharad Pawar may have his stakes in either sides of the political divide, either directly or through his nephew.
Which of these theories are true or will come out to be true, only time will tell. Till then the political scenario in Maharashtra will continue to remain like a thriller taking everyone on a roller coaster ride. Only the Great Maratha Machievelli knows what is in store for the observers, voters, and his political friends, foes, and frenemies in the future.
Sumeet Mehta is a Mumbai based Chartered Accountant