NASA has raised the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, to 3.1%, from last week’s 2.6%. This is a 1 in 32 impact chance. Although scientists assure the public that the chances of a miss are still 96.9%, a chilling animation of the asteroid’s possible destruction has gone viral.
City-Killer Asteroid: What We Know So Far
Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was discovered on December 27, 2023, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, has a diameter of approximately 177 feet (54 meters). While too small to bring about worldwide devastation, it is large enough to destroy an entire city, says LiveScience.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) sent a memo in January following the asteroid’s probability of impact increasing above 1%. Since then, the calculations have oscillated, with NASA’s most recent evaluation indicating an ongoing trend in rising risk.
Horror Simulation Fuels Online Mania
A chilling 3D animation by animation specialist Alvaro Gracia Montoya has swept the social media world, demonstrating the apocalyptic aftermath of an asteroid collision. One X user posted the video with the comment: “NASA has increased the chance a major asteroid smashes into Earth in 2032, now giving it a 3.1% chance, up from 2.6% last week. NASA says the odds the asteroid hits Earth is 1 in 32. It is big enough to wipe out an entire city.”
NEW: NASA has increased the chance a major asteroid smashes into Earth in 2032, now giving it a 3.1% chance, up from 2.6% last week.
NASA says the odds the asteroid hits Earth is 1 in 32. It is big enough to wipe out an entire city.
The large cities with the highest risk are… pic.twitter.com/WHVsiGsieT
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) February 18, 2025
Experts Call for Cool Heads Despite Growing Odds
In spite of the growing probability of impact, scientists insist that there is no cause for alarm in the short term. Bruce Betts, head scientist at The Planetary Society, said to AFP: “I’m not panicking. Of course, when you look at the percentages increasing, it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy and good. But as astronomers get more data, the probability will probably creep up before plummeting to zero very quickly.”
LiveScience informs that NASA’s current tracking efforts will make the predictions more accurate and most probably cut the danger to 0%. Moreover, there is a very slight 0.3% possibility of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting the moon rather than Earth.
What’s Next?
NASA and other space agencies continue to track asteroid 2024 YR4 to narrow its path. Although the latest estimates suggest a slightly greater danger, scientists remain hopeful that more data will indicate no actual threat. For the time being, the world waits and watches as scientists study new observations to identify the asteroid’s actual course.
