Global politics is very complex and keeps altering based on the common multilateral objectives of various nations, their national interests and the political will of their leaders. Amid this complex criss-cross of personal political agenda of the leaders, national interests of their respective nations and the bilateral & multilateral developments, this week also emanated with various developments across the world.
This week, Russia and China, possessing veto powers in the UN Security Council, expressed their reservations regarding a US draft resolution based on the US President Joe Biden’s proposed ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. To pass a resolution, it requires at least nine favourable votes with no vetoes from the US, France, Britain, China or Russia. Last week, President Biden outlined a three-phase ceasefire plan for the Gaza Strip which he presented as an Israeli proposal. Though Israel welcomed the proposal, others have expressed their concerns over the draft. Russia has suggested some alterations in the draft over the demand of “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire respected by all parties”. Russia is also pushing for the draft to emphasize that the phase one ceasefire will be upheld as long as negotiations on phase two continue, aligning with comments from Biden. The negotiating nations as well as the UN have been working towards mediating a ceasefire for months. However, despite the statements from both Hamas and Israel separately that they want to end the war, the war is escalating every second day.
On the other hand, a recent special report from a prominent Canadian parliamentary committee has identified India as the “second most significant foreign challenge” to Canada’s democratic system. China was named as the primary threat, while India has risen from third place in 2019, surpassing Russia on the index of perceived foreign threats. The report has stated that India’s efforts to interfere in foreign affairs have gradually increased, and it became evident during the review period that these efforts expanded beyond countering what it saw as pro-Khalistani activities in Canada. It was earlier alleged that India sought to influence Canadian democratic processes and institutions by targeting Canadian politicians, ethnic media, and Indo-Canadian ethnocultural communities. Earlier this year, unclassified documents from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service implicated several countries, including India, in interfering with Canada’s elections. Although India vehemently denied any involvement and dismissed the Canadian allegations as “baseless”.
Tensions between India and Canada have been continuously intensifying since Trudeau’s allegations on Indian government’s involvement in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. This ‘domino effect’ series of worsening relations between the two nations started when Canadian PM Trudeau claimed ‘credible allegations of a potential link’ between Indian government and the killing of Nijjar (read: a Khalistani terrorist as declared by Indian government). Then, Canadian government expelled a top Indian diplomat amid probe into the killing of pro-Khalistan terrorist Nijjar. Despite clear statements from the concerned authorities of Indian government time and again that it had no role in this entire incident, Trudeau continued with spitting venom on India. India also asked one of the key Canadian diplomats to leave the country within five days as its response. Trudeau also contacted the five eyes intelligence alliance that includes the UK, US, Australia, New Zealand and Canada itself to get their support against India, however they have maintained a strategic neutrality over the issue.
Now the question arises why Trudeau is continuously maligning the image of India with his anti-India statements? Why he preferred to deteriorate relations between India and Canada instead of supporting India in ensuring its national security? Well, the answer lies in the political ambitions of Trudeau. There are many research surveys and reports that show that Trudeau’s popularity is declining, and he has a huge challenge of gathering support from various parties and leaders to maintain his political position and save his minority government. It seems Trudeau has a habit of inviting problems for himself. First, he called for early elections in Canada in 2021 that resulted in a minority government for Trudeau. At this juncture, Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the New Democratic Party helped Trudeau with his won seats, and played a significant role in his government formation. His support matters a lot to Trudeau. Jagmeet Singh is an open Khalistan supporter and critic of Indian government. It seems Trudeau tried to win the trust of Singh and the associated separatist leaders by making imprudent (read: foolish) statements against Indian government. This time, it backfired.
Trade relations between India and Canada have already gone for a toss, and the latest statements from the Canadian authorities will further worsen the relations. Trudeau is also forgetting that most of the Indian diaspora in Canada comprises skilled, peace-loving people and even a majority of Sikh community settled in Canada loves their motherland. He needs to learn that one should not put international relations on stake for vote bank politics. While on the other hand, the mighty nations need to understand that they need not to refuse peace proposals just because they are prepared or proposed by their opponent nations. If its worth is well understood, peace is simple to attain and maintain, otherwise, it is too expensive. Just remember the first and the second world wars!
The author is Professor, School of International Studies, JNU