While the Bharatiya Janata Party appears confident of overcoming the Congress challenge in the 2024 Parliamentary polls in order to secure a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it is the regional parties and their leaders, who seem to be putting the spanner in the works. The problems that have mounted for the Saffron Brigade is that some of these Satraps have managed to create a perception that they could be in the race for the Prime Minister’s position if the BJP fails to secure a majority and the game is left open.
In Bengal, Mamata Banerjee who continues to be popular is perceived to be a strong contender for the top post, if the INDIA bloc was to throw up a nominee who could face Modi. Mamata is a street fighter and has a track record of taking on her opponents in any kind of electoral battle. From the point of view of social engineering, she is the lone Brahmin face of any stature in the country and thus could be acceptable to a sizable population if she manages to muster good numbers from her State. This is a possibility since a large number of her followers are already stating that she could become the first person from Bengal to be the Prime Minister. In Maharashtra, Uddhav Thackeray is similarly being projected as a possible PM candidate.
The Shiv Sena was born out of regional chauvinism and it shall not be surprising if his party is able to convince people that a post which had eluded Yashwantrao Chavan and Sharad Pawar in the past, could be Uddhav Thackeray’s, if the numbers stack up in Maharashtra. It is significant that after Uttar Pradesh which sends 80 MPs, Maharashtra is next with 48. Winning here for the Maha Vikas Aghadi can be a game changer and could unsettle the BJP’s designs. In Tamil Nadu, MK Stalin despite being repeatedly targeted for his son’s anti-Sanatan Dharam remarks is also playing on the mood of the people.
In a State which has 39 Lok Sabha seats besides Puducherry, regional pride has always been a factor. With the BJP trying to repeatedly attack the state leadership, there is a possibility that Stalin may end up as a beneficiary. Under the circumstances, the DMK is a clear favorite with the AIDMK fragmented and directionless, and the BJP fishing in troubled waters. In Uttar Pradesh, which after Gujarat is regarded as the strongest BJP State, supporters of Samajwadi Party boss and former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav have started propagating that their leader is a potential Prime Ministers face.
While it is difficult to say whether this would make a difference at the people’s level, it has needlessly forced the BJP’s local units to spend their time and energies in dispelling the impression. In Bihar, Lalu Prasad Yadav and his son Tejasvi have emerged as possible contenders for the post even though many BJP die-hard supporters may think this to be some sort of a joke. The question that arises is that why is all this happening when Modi is confident of becoming the head of the government for the third consecutive time.
The difference between now and earlier times is that Rahul Gandhi is no longer the face of the Opposition to take on Modi. Had that been so, things may have become difficult for the Opposition and would have helped the BJP narrative all the way. The BJP which has entered the fray with an improbable target of 400 Paar, has to spend its energies on taking on different opponents in different states and can no longer take for granted that their overall strategy is applicable everywhere. These opponents have their differences but so far as dislodging the BJP is concerned, they are together.
The Modi centric campaign has a downside to it also. With no visible opponent, the contest has a dimension where it is a Modi versus Modi contest at one level. There are supporters of the Prime Minister on one side and his opponents on the other. It is a peculiar situation which has multiple narratives and they are at play in the media. This is also the first time that there is a mismatch between what the national TV channels are showing and how the social media is reacting.
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest has made many voters thinking and though the BJP dismisses this development lightly, there are ramifications which have serious fallouts. Indeed, time is running out for the Opposition to have a cohesive campaign because of its own inherent contradictions. However, in their respective States, the regional Satraps have managed to engage the BJP in their own game. It is not easy for any BJP leader to dispel the impression that regional leaders cannot be Prime Ministers if that is how their supporters are projecting them to be in their respective states.
Politics is a game which has its own logic and its own illogic as well. This is how Devendra Dwivedi, a close aide of P.V.Narasimha Rao used to say. The 2024 election is going to be unique.
If Modi wins a third term, he will create history. However, if the fragmented opposition manages to dislodge the BJP, it would be history made as well. The Saffron Brigade has its own share of problems including how to address its grassroots workers after tickets have been distributed and given to those against whom the cadre fought all their lives. This is true in virtually every state. Elections throw up surprises but what will happen in 2024 is what only the people know.
Pankaj Vohra