Rajasthan Exit Polls: Exit polls inject a fresh dose of uncertainty into Rajasthan’s assembly elections, projecting an intense battle in the Hindi heartland state. Breaking a three-decade tradition of keeping an incumbent government raises the stakes of the outcome. While three exit polls show the BJP with a clear lead, two others show the Congress with a better chance of forming the next government.
Exit poll predictions underscore the potential impact of “others,” encompassing smaller parties and independents, in shaping the state’s political narrative upon the announcement of results on December 3. Rajasthan saw polling across 199 out of 200 assembly seats on November 25.
In the lead-up to the elections, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s Congress government unveiled an array of populist schemes to counter the BJP’s challenge.
The India Today-Axis My India poll envisions Congress securing 86–106 seats with 42% of votes, while the BJP is poised to secure 80–100 seats with 41% vote support. The “others” category may clinch 9–18 seats with 7% of votes.
The India TV-CNX poll predicts Congress clinching 94–104 seats with 43% votes, while the BJP trails with 80–90 seats and a 42% vote share. The “others” category may secure 14–18 seats with 15% votes.
The Times Now-ETG poll allocates 56–72 seats to Congress with a 38.98% vote share, while the BJP is projected to secure 108–128 seats with 41.88% votes. The “others” category may secure 13–21 seats with a substantial 19.14% vote share.
The Jan Ki Baat poll envisions the BJP securing 100–122 seats with a 44% vote share, while Congress trails with 62–85 seats and a 41% vote share. The “others” category may secure 14–15 seats with 15% votes.
The P-Marq poll predicts the BJP winning 105–125 seats in Rajasthan with a 42.2% vote share, while Congress is projected to secure 69–81 seats with 39.7% votes. The “others” category may clinch 5–15 seats with an 18.1% vote share.
Despite the NEWSX Poll of Polls predicting Rajasthan’s adherence to the pattern of voting out the incumbent government, all exit polls favour the BJP, which suffered defeat in 2018. PolStrat suggests a closer battle with the BJP winning 100–110 seats, Congress securing 90–100, and others clinching 5–15 seats.
The election results on December 3 will not only decide the fate of Rajasthan but also carry significant implications for the BJP and Congress as they gear up for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.
