Elections will be held for 24 Rajya Sabha seats on 19 June. What is interesting is that even in the times of pandemic, good old-fashioned politics is not left behind. It is the BJP that has upped the ante after 8 Congress MLAs from Gujarat defected to join the saffron party in the run to the Rajya Sabha polls. Before the defection the Congress was hoping to get two candidates elected from the four vacancies in Gujarat, while the other two would have gone comfortably to the BJP. But, come nominations the BJP proposed three names, and post the defections, seems better placed to get all three in its kitty than the Congress is of getting two. (The current tally is Congress 65 MLAs and BJP 103.)
The events in Gujarat had a ripple effect in Rajasthan. With 107 MLAs and the support of 10 independents as opposed to the BJP’s strength of 72 MLAs, the Congress fielded two candidates for the 3 Rajya Sabha seats in the state. The BJP, not to be outdone, has also fielded two candidates. Fearing a Gujarattype situation CM Ashok Gehlot has tightened his hold over his MLAs, spiriting them to resorts. Gehlot has also alleged that the BJP has made an offer of Rs 25- 30 crore to each MLA to defect. He is not so worried about the Congress MLAs as the independent ones who find it easier to switch sides. Another worry is that after tasting blood in Madhya Pradesh, will the BJP try and topple the Rajasthan government?
There is, however, a crucial difference between Rajasthan and MP. First, former CM Kamal Nath was not just taking on the BJP but also factions within his own party — apart from Jyotiraditya Scindia’s open revolt one is never quite sure which side Digvijaya Singh is ever on. Here too Gehlot’s Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot has made his differences with his CM clear. But — unlike Scindia — Pilot is not keen to take this revolt too far. He knows that the line of succession — at least in state politics — is clear and is (impatiently) biding his time. Perhaps he has taken a lesson from the way Scindia has been treated in the BJP. For it is clear that while Scindia may get his Rajya Sabha seat and even a cabinet berth, he in no way enjoys the same clout in his new party as he did within the Congress. It is ironic that one of the reasons why Scindia left the Congress was access. It miffed him when Rahul Gandhi did not meet or SMS him for weeks. Well, it’s not as if either Narendra Modi or Amit Shah is going to be in constant communication to assuage every real or perceived slight. Neither has the BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan welcomed Scindia with open arms. Younger and more politically active than Nath, the MP CM is going to keep all pretenders to his throne at an arm’s length.
Ditto for Rajasthan. If Sachin were to jump ship and join the BJP, there are enough state leaders zealously guarding their turf, be it Vasundhara Raje Scindia or Gajender Singh Shekhawat. Both will block his entry into state politics. At least within the Congress, Pilot has a stature that puts him at par with the second rung of leadership.
As the Rajya Sabha elections draw near, it’s time for the masks to come off and MLAs to decide which side they are on.