Russian President Vladimir Putin appears poised to negotiate a peace deal over Ukraine, with reports suggesting Moscow could secure significant territorial gains if Ukraine agrees to remain neutral and abandon its aspirations to join NATO or the EU. As both nations face war fatigue, Russia’s challenges in sustaining its military efforts have become increasingly evident.
Despite making advances in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, Russia is grappling with severe recruitment shortfalls. Western assessments estimate that Russia has suffered between 115,000 to 160,000 troop fatalities, with another 500,000 wounded since the conflict began. To counter these staggering losses, Moscow has been enlisting 20,000 new soldiers each month, but the pool of willing recruits is declining.
Historically, Russian conscription has been plagued by harsh conditions, including hazing and abuse a practice known as “dedovshchina”. These realities, along with memories of poorly treated conscripts during the Chechen wars, have fueled widespread draft avoidance. Since the war’s onset, young Russian men have employed desperate measures to evade conscription, from falsifying medical records to self-inflicted injuries.
The Kremlin recently intensified its efforts to draft more soldiers. On November 1, a new law enabled online draft notices, making it nearly impossible for eligible men to evade conscription. Once notified, recipients are immediately barred from leaving the country. The government’s digital integration ensures that any interaction with state systems whether for tax payments or passport renewals can trigger a draft notice.
Russia has also turned to unconventional recruitment strategies, including enlisting prisoners and reportedly relying on North Korean troops. However, these foreign soldiers face operational hurdles, such as language barriers and unfamiliar military tactics.
As the war drags on, Putin’s rhetoric has escalated, including veiled nuclear threats. In November, he warned of potential nuclear retaliation following a Ukrainian missile attack on Russia’s Bryansk region. Analysts suggest such statements reflect Russia’s faltering conventional warfare capabilities.
Despite these challenges, diplomatic developments hint at a possible peace deal. While Ukraine faces its own struggles, experts caution that Putin’s willingness to negotiate stems more from necessity than strength. A favorable agreement for Moscow could arrive just in time to offset its deepening military crisis.
