It is virtually certain that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra could be making her electoral debut in 2024 Parliamentary polls, and has already started scouting around for a constituency. The first indication of her being serious about her intentions were provided by the Congress High Command’s decision on Saturday to relieve her as in-charge of Uttar Pradesh, and instead entrust the responsibility to Avinash Pande.
Ideally speaking Priyanka should be contesting from Rae Bareilly, which is currently represented by her mother, Sonia Gandhi, or Amethi from where both her parents as well as brother Rahul have been elected in the past. However, the problem is that there is no safe seat for the Gandhis in Uttar Pradesh, and even in their bastions of Rae Bareilly and Amethi, their position is shaky. It is most unlikely that they would be win these seats, unless the allies support them fully and the BJP receives some serious political setback. Therefore, both brother and sister would be looking for constituencies, probably in South India. Robert Vadra during a recent visit to Telangana had reportedly hinted that Priyanka could be contesting from Nizamabad but this may just be an exercise in deception.
Given Priyanka’s constant endeavour to remind the electorate about her grandmother, she would in all probability pick the seats which were won by Indira Gandhi. Thus, the possibility of her getting the mood gauged in Medak, from where Indira Gandhi had won in 1980 remains strong. Local Congress leaders have been urging her to come to Telangana since they know that if she shifts her base there, they would be able to reap political dividends within the party because of their proximity to her. Another seat, she could consider would be Chickmaglur in Karnataka from where Indira Gandhi commenced her political return in 1979 by defeating the formidable Virendra Patil, the candidate of the combined Janata Party. It is another matter that Virendra Patil later shifted to the Congress and was a part of her Cabinet.
Incidentally, before Siddaramaiah Patil was perhaps the only Karnataka leader to have completed a full five-year term as the Chief Minister in the past four decades or so. Another seat in Karnataka which may be on Priyanka’s radar could be Bellary from where her mother Sonia Gandhi, defeated Sushma Swaraj.
Speculation continues till the final choice is declared. Her political debut in electoral politics has been delayed because of repeated attempts to keep the focus on her brother, who somehow has been unable to extend his appeal to the masses and suffers when comparisons get drawn with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BJP is keen to make it look like a Modi Vs Rahul battle and always gains by such a projection.
There are some leaders in the INDIA bloc who want Priyanka to contest against Modi from Varanasi, a risk she may not be willing to take. Unlike her grandmother, who was known for her uncanny calculations, the present set of Gandhis wish to play it safe. In the most unlikely possibility of Priyanka being pitted against Modi, she would still need another seat, as a back-up.
Even Modi and many other leaders have in the past fought from more seats than one to ensure that they do not get eliminated from the political arena. In Priyanka’s case, if she and her brother or family, give up on Uttar Pradesh, the Congress would be publicly admitting that they have no solid ground left in the country’s largest and most populous State which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. This would amount to wrong political messaging and thus hurt the prospects of the party in the long run. As it is, the party is facing an uphill task of holding on to its current numbers and increasing its foothold in the country, which is fast diminishing. If some of Priyanka’s admirers are to be believed, she was once tipped to take over as the general secretary in-charge of organization from KC Venugopal. However, Rahul resisted the move and insisted that his chosen nominee should continue in the post. There has been widespread criticism within the party regarding Venugopal’s political acumen. But he stays since Rahul wishes him to stay on. There have been suggestions that Mallikarjun Kharge should appoint a political secretary in order to assert himself in no uncertain terms. He has not done so though he is dependent on people close to him such as Syed Naseer Hussain and Gurdeep Singh Sappal.
It would have been appropriate if he had some experienced leaders to assist him, such as any of the former Indian Youth Congress presidents like Tariq Anwar, Mukul Wasnik, Ramesh Chennithala or Manish Tewari. However, he is the party boss and knows what is best for him. Coming back to Priyanka, she knows that it would be in her best interests to make her electoral debut in 2024 under the watchful eyes of her mother, whose backing has kept her brother Rahul as the key figure in Congress politics.
The 2024 contest is going to be crucial for the Congress and the Gandhis in particular. They cannot politically afford to slide down further than what the Congress has been reduced to. Thus, all three of them have to make wise and appropriate choices and give greater freedom to Kharge to run the party. His acceptability is across the political barriers and he knows how to do his job.